Pelicans vs. Clippers

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (50%) · Pelicans at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Pelicans53¢Clippers47¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$20.97

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans53%

Clippers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,112

Combined PnL+$13.82

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$955.38

Total Shares1,947

Combined PnL+$7.15

Pelicans — 50%Clippers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Clippersavg 47.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$18.83	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$10.91
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 51.6¢	$462.35	$470.26	+$7.91
37 0x3783...171d	Pelicansavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	—
RI Richidd	Pelicansavg 54.2¢	$614.1	$594.34	-$5.66	49% 61-63 (124)
VeryLucky888	Pelicansavg 52¢	$780	$504.25	+$10.2	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Clippersavg 47.4¢	$670.23	$374.07	+$5.28	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47.4¢	$265.92	$266.45	+$4.25
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52¢	$106.6	$107.63	+$1.03
SE sentrioCTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$274.4	$277.31	+$2.92	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
NM NM-PCTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
IC ic4creamCTR	Clippersavg 53.2¢	$164.23	$161.93	-$2.31	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$92.41	$74.8	-$1.12	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 49¢	$55.47	$53.81	-$1.52
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 51.5¢	$20.59	$20.99	+$0.4
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$39.6	$41.14	+$1.53	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
GA Gaditima<$100	Pelicansavg 51.2¢	$8.86	$8.21	-$0.65	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Pelicansavg 54.2¢	$2.07	$2	-$0.07	58% 41-30 (71)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2,145.59

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$18.83

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Clippers$1,683.2447.2¢+$10.91

Pelicans$462.3551.6¢+$7.91

0x3783...171d

Pelicans

Invested

$1,039.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

Richidd

Pelicans

Invested

$614.1

Value

$594.34

PnL

-$5.66

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

VeryLucky888

Pelicans

Invested

$780

Value

$504.25

PnL

+$10.2

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$670.23

Value

$374.07

PnL

+$5.28

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Clippers$265.9247.4¢+$4.25

Pelicans$106.652¢+$1.03

sentrioCTR

Clippers

Invested

$274.4

Value

$277.31

PnL

+$2.92

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

NM-PCTR

Clippers

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Clippers

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

ic4creamCTR

Clippers

Invested

$164.23

Value

$161.93

PnL

-$2.31

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

Pan9XARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$92.41

Value

$74.8

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Clippers$55.4749¢-$1.52

Pelicans$20.5951.5¢+$0.4

OddstormCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$39.6

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Gaditima<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$8.86

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$0.65

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

Aceplus3<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

41-30 (71)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.