Matsuyama: Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Keisuke Saitoh (64%) · Keisuke Saitoh at 51¢ · $66K held · ends Nov 16

Keisuke Saitoh51¢Renta Tokuda49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Keisuke Saitoh

Consensus Traders

Keisuke Saitoh 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.7K

Combined PnL

$-17.4K

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 51¢

-15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKeisuke Saitoh at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Keisuke Saitoh

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Keisuke Saitoh51%

Renta Tokuda49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Renta Tokuda5 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares78,430

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Keisuke Saitoh9 traders

Total Value$35.4K

Total Shares83,944

Combined PnL$-15.0K

Renta Tokuda — 36%Keisuke Saitoh — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 40.8¢	$26.6K	$22.2K	$-4.4K	48% 124-133 (257)
RN1	Keisuke Saitohavg 59.9¢	$25.0K	$16.9K	$-8.1K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 43¢	$4.7K	$6.6K	+$1.9K	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Keisuke Saitohavg 61¢	$9.3K	$6.2K	$-3.1K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
0X 0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22f	Keisuke Saitohavg 57.3¢	$6.5K	$6.1K	-$431.62	51% 155-150 (305)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Keisuke Saitohavg 60.7¢	$6.3K	$4.1K	$-2.1K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
SE sentrio	Keisuke Saitohavg 60¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$603.15	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
VE VenusianCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 43.2¢	$707.26	$745.83	+$38.57	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 37.8¢	$457.05	$472.54	+$119.29	60% 4598-3103 (7701)
MA MadridTime	Keisuke Saitohavg 75¢	$796.47	$425	-$371.47	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
FL Flaznorp	Keisuke Saitohavg 61.3¢	$498.95	$329.51	-$169.44	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Keisuke Saitohavg 61.9¢	$271.67	$205.51	-$66.17	54% 10225-8705 (18930)
└ Keisuke Saitoh leg	Keisuke Saitohavg 61.9¢	$240.32	$155.19	-$85.13
└ Renta Tokuda leg	Renta Tokudaavg 37.4¢	$31.35	$50.32	+$18.97
EU Eulhunter	Keisuke Saitohavg 59.9¢	$135.92	$90.8	-$45.12	53% 6779-5931 (12710)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Renta Tokudaavg 41¢	$572.33	$20.83	-$39.85	56% 1972-1532 (3504)
LI Limousin<$100	Keisuke Saitohavg 66.1¢	$3.31	$2.03	-$1.28	49% 2223-2352 (4575)

robustmstCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$26,614.17

Value

$22.2K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

48%

124-133 (257)

RN1

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$24,955.66

Value

$16.9K

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

LightParadoxCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$4,747.78

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$9,348.33

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22f

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$6,532.49

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$431.62

Record

51%

155-150 (305)

ferrariChampions2026

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$6,276.63

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

sentrio

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$1,855.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$603.15

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

VenusianCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$707.26

Value

$745.83

PnL

+$38.57

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

thestingsnakeCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$457.05

Value

$472.54

PnL

+$119.29

Record

60%

4598-3103 (7701)

MadridTime

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$796.47

Value

$425

PnL

-$371.47

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Flaznorp

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$498.95

Value

$329.51

PnL

-$169.44

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$271.67

Value

$205.51

PnL

-$66.17

Record

54%

10225-8705 (18930)

Both legs:

Keisuke Saitoh$240.3261.9¢-$85.13

Renta Tokuda$31.3537.4¢+$18.97

Eulhunter

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$135.92

Value

$90.8

PnL

-$45.12

Record

53%

6779-5931 (12710)

SchruteBucksCTR

Renta Tokuda

Invested

$572.33

Value

$20.83

PnL

-$39.85

Record

56%

1972-1532 (3504)

Limousin<$100

Keisuke Saitoh

Invested

$3.31

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$1.28

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Research grade

NeutralKeisuke Saitoh at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Keisuke Saitoh

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Keisuke Saitoh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.