Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.9K
$86.6
78.3¢ → 80.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 78.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | +$81.58 | 49% 1813-1894 (3707) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $82.8 | $80.01 | -$2.54 | 26% 281-782 (1063) |
 themagicofcinema<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $67.59 | $70.83 | +$3.24 | 66% 403-206 (609) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $63.65 | $58.95 | -$4.7 | 42% 5195-7119 (12314) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $26.82 | $35.76 | +$8.94 | 53% 6328-5544 (11872) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.51 | $0.59 | +$0.07 | 36% 2027-3623 (5650) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$1,822.02
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$81.58
Record
49%
1813-1894 (3707)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$82.8
Value
$80.01
PnL
-$2.54
Record
26%
281-782 (1063)
themagicofcinema<$100Invested
$67.59
Value
$70.83
PnL
+$3.24
Record
66%
403-206 (609)
Invested
$63.65
Value
$58.95
PnL
-$4.7
Record
42%
5195-7119 (12314)
Invested
$26.82
Value
$35.76
PnL
+$8.94
Record
53%
6328-5544 (11872)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.59
PnL
+$0.07
Record
36%
2027-3623 (5650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.