Spread: Heat (-9.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (42%) · Heat at 53¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 9

Heat53¢Kings47¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 42%

Total Value

$31.9K

Combined PnL

$12.49

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat53%

Kings48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat5 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares33,620

Combined PnL-$140.08

Kings7 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares29,877

Combined PnL+$152.57

Heat — 42%Kings — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHeat 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrKings 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Heatavg 53¢	$33.0K	$17.3K	-$165.13	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$86.01	49% 507-531 (1038)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$9.3K	$4.4K	+$49.61	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
HI hi774cCTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$3.0K	$1.4K	+$15.2	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
nigiri99	Heatavg 47.6¢	$227.35	$250.95	+$23.6	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$278	$132.05	+$1.39	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$90	$42.75	+$0.45	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$69.04	$36.24	+$0.35	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$37	$17.58	+$0.19	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LightParadox<$100	Heatavg 49¢	$14.7	$15.75	+$1.05	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrio<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$10.42	$5.47	+$0.05	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 53¢	$5	$2.38	-$0.28	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

ferrariChampions2026

Heat

Invested

$33,032.7

Value

$17.3K

PnL

-$165.13

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Kings

Invested

$8,084.72

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$86.01

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$9,302.53

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$49.61

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

hi774cCTR

Kings

Invested

$3,040.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.2

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$227.35

Value

$250.95

PnL

+$23.6

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

38791873984189CTR

Kings

Invested

$278

Value

$132.05

PnL

+$1.39

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RLWGCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$90

Value

$42.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

SnakeBall<$100

Heat

Invested

$69.04

Value

$36.24

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$37

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LightParadox<$100

Heat

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrio<$100

Heat

Invested

$10.42

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHeat 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrKings 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.