Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

-$108.71

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 98.7¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares13,687

Combined PnL+$66.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$384.68

Total Shares38,466

Combined PnL-$175.41

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
themagicofcinema	Noavg 98.4¢	$9.8K	$8.3K	+$58.41	66% 413-210 (623)
balthazar	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$6.59	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$465.52	$290.06	-$175.46	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
PO poposub	Noavg 98.8¢	$264.9	$265.99	+$1.09	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$94.33	$94.33	+$0	43% 552-726 (1278)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$64.48	$64.85	+$0.37	52% 2459-2280 (4739)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$47.28	$47.52	+$0.24	52% 4965-4595 (9560)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.14	$0.19	+$0.06	— 0-3 (3)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.12	$0.1	-$0.01	78% 266-77 (343)

themagicofcinema

Invested

$9,840

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$58.41

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

balthazar

Invested

$4,845.92

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$6.59

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$465.52

Value

$290.06

PnL

-$175.46

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

poposub

Invested

$264.9

Value

$265.99

PnL

+$1.09

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.33

Value

$94.33

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

merod<$100

Invested

$64.48

Value

$64.85

PnL

+$0.37

Record

52%

2459-2280 (4739)

korda77<$100

Invested

$47.28

Value

$47.52

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

4965-4595 (9560)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

—

0-3 (3)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.01

Record

78%

266-77 (343)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.