Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5

3 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (16%) · Under at 52¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 9

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 16%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.2K

Combined PnL

$79.2

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 19 top traders (16%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares22,017

Combined PnL+$71.15

Over16 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares13,945

Combined PnL+$8.04

Under — 16%Over — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

16% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 82% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 84% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 51.2¢	$10.3K	$10.3K	+$52.82	49% 115-119 (234)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$13.7K	$6.8K	-$20.86	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$0.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$21.08
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.41	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	-$12.44	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$2.89	49% 507-531 (1038)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 48¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$10.42	55% 824-676 (1500)
nigiri99	Underavg 50.4¢	$868.04	$887.43	+$19.39	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.5K	$717.8	+$7.4	50% 1560-1566 (3126)
BI biying99999CTR	Overavg 50¢	$405	$392.85	-$12.15	48% 150-163 (313)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$712.96	$356.1	-$7.26	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$184.51	$178.97	-$5.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$178.85	$177.13	-$1.72
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 49¢	$394.06	$191.12	-$1.97	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52¢	$760	$109.18	-$1.06	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$91	$44.14	-$0.45	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$73.11	$36.19	-$0.85	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.73	$21.39	+$0.66	62% 35806-22243 (58049)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$43.11	$20.91	+$0.22	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$41.66	$20.21	+$0.21	48% 4163-4497 (8660)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$129	$16.31	-$0.24	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$30	$14.55	+$0.15	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$9.7	-$0.3	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$5	$2.43	-$0.13	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$10,289.37

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$52.82

Record

49%

115-119 (234)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$13,687.25

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$20.86

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Over$4,591.2748.5¢+$0.23

Under$2,193.3352¢-$21.08

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$1,959.01

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.41

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$2,487.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.44

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$1,100.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$2.89

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.42

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$868.04

Value

$887.43

PnL

+$19.39

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,480

Value

$717.8

PnL

+$7.4

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

biying99999CTR

Over

Invested

$405

Value

$392.85

PnL

-$12.15

Record

48%

150-163 (313)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$712.96

Value

$356.1

PnL

-$7.26

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Both legs:

Over$184.5150¢-$5.54

Under$178.8552¢-$1.72

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$394.06

Value

$191.12

PnL

-$1.97

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$760

Value

$109.18

PnL

-$1.06

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91

Value

$44.14

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.11

Value

$36.19

PnL

-$0.85

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

e46m3CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.73

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.66

Record

62%

35806-22243 (58049)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.11

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.66

Value

$20.21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

4163-4497 (8660)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$129

Value

$16.31

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 19 top traders (16%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

16% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 82% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 84% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.