Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankevaakferrariChampions2026RN1
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)no settled market44% (11396–14488, n=25884)48% (17938–19366, n=37304)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$11-$8.8M$14.9M
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #996was PM monthly #87PM monthly #32 + pinned
Sides with the consensus83% (29 of 35 open)100% (1 of 1 open)70% (23 of 33 open)56% (35 of 62 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
not computed yet
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%—100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)—4% (won 97% of 237)10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)—26% (won 100% of 1446)22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)—40% (won 100% of 2198)35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)—30% (won 100% of 1675)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankevaakferrariChampions2026RN1
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $96—Buccaneers $26Bears $877
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $12K—Bears $27KBears $27K
Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $7.6KOver $2.7K
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $1.5KUnder $2.2K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $1.2KOver $1.7K
Spread: Bears (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
——Bears $295Buccaneers $2.4K
WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
same side · consensus Coco Gauff
——Coco Gauff $91KCoco Gauff $58K
Knoxville: Patrick Zahraj vs Sebastian Dominko
same side · consensus Patrick Zahraj
——Patrick Zahraj $65KPatrick Zahraj $5.8K
Penguins vs. Ducks
same side · consensus Ducks
——Ducks $34KDucks $966
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5
same side · consensus Over
——Over $33KOver $90
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
——Celtics $28KCeltics $1.3K
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $19KUnder $499
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5
same side · consensus Under
——Over $9.9KOver $128
Spread: Heat (-10.5)
same side · consensus Heat
——Kings $4.5KKings $2.4K
Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $1.3K—Under $802—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
——Over $1.3KOver $360