Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 52¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 9

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$113.14

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares15,990

Combined PnL+$102.39

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares15,444

Combined PnL+$10.75

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.9¢	$8.5K	$8.6K	+$98.92	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 49¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$38.44	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$46.9	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
BI biying99999	Overavg 51¢	$421.26	$417.13	-$4.13	47% 150-168 (318)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 49¢	$312.88	$310.1	-$2.78	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$187.13	$192.62	+$5.49	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$350	$173.25	+$8.75	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49¢	$134.11	$134.11	+$0	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 52¢	$138.73	$129.57	-$9.16	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49¢	$117.16	$125.89	+$8.73	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$76.99	$75.78	-$1.21	49% 410-432 (842)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.45	$2.53	+$0.08	49% 8555-8731 (17286)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$8,477.83

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$98.92

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$3,766.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$38.44

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$2,860.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$46.9

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

biying99999

Over

Invested

$421.26

Value

$417.13

PnL

-$4.13

Record

47%

150-168 (318)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$312.88

Value

$310.1

PnL

-$2.78

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$187.13

Value

$192.62

PnL

+$5.49

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$8.75

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$134.11

Value

$134.11

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$138.73

Value

$129.57

PnL

-$9.16

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$117.16

Value

$125.89

PnL

+$8.73

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Over

Invested

$76.99

Value

$75.78

PnL

-$1.21

Record

49%

410-432 (842)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.