Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (65%) · Under at 53¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 9

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.2K

Combined PnL

-$55.63

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares40,725

Combined PnL-$712.41

Under11 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares39,772

Combined PnL+$656.78

Over — 35%Under — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Under 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.5K	-$300	53% 679-594 (1273)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 51¢	$14.1K	$7.4K	+$211.94	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.8¢	$5.2K	$5.5K	+$231.21	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$268.24	50% 583-574 (1157)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$144.84	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
nigiri99	Underavg 51¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$71.82	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51¢	$3.2K	$1.7K	+$47.28	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.46	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$30	49% 27-28 (55)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50¢	$667	$700.35	+$33.35	49% 507-531 (1038)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$798	$525	-$5.25	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$275.63	+$2.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$257.25	$249.37	-$7.88
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$700	$350	+$3.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$175	$183.75	+$8.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$166.25	-$5.25
SE sentrio	Underavg 50¢	$502.78	$263.96	+$12.57	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50¢	$210.79	$212.82	+$2.03	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$125.06	$126.69	+$1.63	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$84	$24.95	-$0.58	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Underavg 50¢	$40	$21	+$1	48% 4163-4497 (8660)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$25	$11.88	-$0.38	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$2.63	+$0.13	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$9,799.96

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$300

Record

53%

679-594 (1273)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$14,128.2

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$211.94

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,241.37

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$231.21

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Over

Invested

$5,365.05

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$268.24

Record

50%

583-574 (1157)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,731.44

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$144.84

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,441.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$71.82

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$3,152

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$47.28

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$1,607.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.46

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$667

Value

$700.35

PnL

+$33.35

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$798

Value

$525

PnL

-$5.25

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Invested

$700

Value

$350

PnL

+$3.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Invested

$502.78

Value

$263.96

PnL

+$12.57

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$210.79

Value

$212.82

PnL

+$2.03

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$125.06

Value

$126.69

PnL

+$1.63

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84

Value

$24.95

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Notradecopy<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$21

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

4163-4497 (8660)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$11.88

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Under 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.