Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 51¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 9

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.6K

Combined PnL

$219.84

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares35,891

Combined PnL+$231.13

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares21,779

Combined PnL-$11.29

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 51¢	$10.4K	$10.5K	+$95.01	49% 493-510 (1003)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$100.48	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$9.3K	$9.6K	+$243.28	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$185
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$58.28
IA ianf2026	Underavg 49¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$44.35	50% 126-128 (254)
HI hi774c	Underavg 48¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$92.47	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49¢	$490	$385	-$105	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$204	$202	-$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$177.11	$188.2	+$11.09	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$101.43	$104.54	+$3.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.8¢	$75.68	$83.67	+$7.99
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$200.26	$168.3	-$31.96	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
RN1CTR	Overavg 42¢	$103.32	$121.77	+$18.45	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$32.49	$39.23	+$6.74	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$18.55	$16.75	+$1.1	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.56	$2.73	+$0.18	48% 521-567 (1088)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 49¢	$5	$2.48	+$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$10,418.27

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$95.01

Record

49%

493-510 (1003)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$9,847.06

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$100.48

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,314.08

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$243.28

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Under$7,412.7548.8¢+$185

Over$1,901.3348.5¢+$58.28

ianf2026

Under

Invested

$4,345.81

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$44.35

Record

50%

126-128 (254)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$2,959.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$92.47

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$385

PnL

-$105

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$204

Value

$202

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$177.11

Value

$188.2

PnL

+$11.09

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Under$101.4349¢+$3.11

Over$75.6844.8¢+$7.99

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$200.26

Value

$168.3

PnL

-$31.96

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$103.32

Value

$121.77

PnL

+$18.45

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.49

Value

$39.23

PnL

+$6.74

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.55

Value

$16.75

PnL

+$1.1

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.