Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (85%) · Over at 53¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 9

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 85%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.9K

Combined PnL

-$33.82

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 13 top traders (85%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$28.1K

Total Shares54,963

Combined PnL+$14.43

Under2 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,652

Combined PnL-$48.25

Over — 85%Under — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.7¢	$18.8K	$18.7K	-$82.7	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 50¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$58.09	49% 516-547 (1063)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$48.23	61% 4522-2835 (7357)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.26	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
HI hi774c	Overavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.18	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.4¢	$861	$875	+$14	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.4¢	$441	$459.38	+$18.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$420	$415.63	-$4.38
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$863.15	$858.43	-$4.73	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$458.5	$459.38	+$0.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$404.65	$399.05	-$5.6
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 50¢	$383.8	$387.63	+$3.84	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$368.59	$373.36	+$4.77	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$193.98	$190.95	-$3.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.3¢	$174.61	$182.41	+$7.8
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 51¢	$204	$202	-$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 50¢	$101.89	$106.95	+$5.06	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
nigiri99	Overavg 49¢	$100.45	$105.58	+$5.13	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$39.4	$39.53	+$0.13	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 51¢	$36.56	$24.37	+$0.24	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Overavg 50¢	$20	$20.2	+$0.2	48% 4168-4500 (8668)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	50% 27934-27381 (55315)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$18,829.6

Value

$18.7K

PnL

-$82.7

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$5,809

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$58.09

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,726.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$48.23

Record

61%

4522-2835 (7357)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$1,454.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.26

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,117.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.18

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$861

Value

$875

PnL

+$14

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Invested

$863.15

Value

$858.43

PnL

-$4.73

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Over$458.552.4¢+$0.88

Under$404.6548.2¢-$5.6

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$383.8

Value

$387.63

PnL

+$3.84

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$368.59

Value

$373.36

PnL

+$4.77

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Under$193.9848.3¢-$3.03

Over$174.6150.3¢+$7.8

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$204

Value

$202

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$101.89

Value

$106.95

PnL

+$5.06

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$100.45

Value

$105.58

PnL

+$5.13

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$39.4

Value

$39.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$36.56

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$0.24

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Notradecopy<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

4168-4500 (8668)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 13 top traders (85%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.