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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ferrariChampions2026FlaznorpIlIIIIIIlIIlllIIIllRN1
Record (consensus markets)43% (11761–15331, n=27092)55% (13298–10666, n=23964)100% (12–0, n=12)48% (19574–21323, n=40897)
Consensus PnL-$9.4M$1.4M$20K$14.9M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #87PM monthly #14was PM monthly #939PM monthly #35 + pinned
Sides with the consensus80% (4 of 5 open)70% (95 of 135 open)no open consensus position59% (16 of 27 open)
Strongest topics
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Other Sports −28 pts, n=15Esports ±0 pts, n=10—
Settled positions, side won100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%90% of 10 at avg 90¢, ROI +5%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢4% (won 97% of 237)29% (won 11% of 403)0%10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 100% of 1446)16% (won 38% of 228)0%22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢40% (won 100% of 2198)15% (won 62% of 214)0%35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 100% of 1675)40% (won 94% of 553)100% (won 90% of 10)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

12 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketferrariChampions2026FlaznorpIlIIIIIIlIIlllIIIllRN1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $1.2KUnder $13K—Over $1.7K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $4.5K—Yes $1.9K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $859—Over $3.0K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $3.1K—Yes $7
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $148Yes $2.7K——
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $2.6K—Over $36
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $446—Under $1.4K
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 2 - 1 Boluspor?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $873—Yes $315
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $491—No $524
Athletic Club leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $837—Yes $60
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 1 - 1 Boluspor?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $256—No $12
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $14—Under $181
Hersonissos 3: Oleksii Krutykh vs Oskari Paldanius
same side · consensus Oskari Paldanius
—Oskari Paldanius $2.8K—Oskari Paldanius $37K
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?
same side · consensus No
—No $14K—No $2.5K
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Ugo Humbert
same side · consensus Ugo Humbert
Ugo Humbert $7.1KUgo Humbert $591——
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $1.3K——Over $360
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $95—Under $1.1K
Spread: Umraniyespor (-1.5)
same side · consensus Boluspor
—Boluspor $751—Boluspor $44
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $721—Under $20
Boluspor leading at halftime?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $173—Yes $240
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
same side · consensus Athletic Club
—Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $246—Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $1
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $203—Under $41
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $51—Over $29
Exact Score: Vitesse Arnhem 0 - 0 De Graafschap?
same side · consensus No
—No $4—No $21