Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Vitesse Arnhem 0 - 0 De Graafschap?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 13¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 13.1¢

-86% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,596

Combined PnL+$5.1K

No9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares10,045

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Yesavg 5.3¢	$321.84	$5.1K	+$4.8K	99% 15830-133 (15963)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 95.7¢	$5.1K	$739.09	$-4.1K	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 11¢	$46.59	$361.92	+$315.33	76% 135-43 (178)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 95.7¢	$2.5K	$359.31	$-2.0K	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 92.1¢	$1.4K	$198.85	$-1.1K	50% 3026-2973 (5999)
dips.	Yesavg 96.9¢	$151	$129.03	-$17.35	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 89.9¢	$375.23	$54.6	-$282.91	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 89.2¢	$357.02	$51.95	-$266.65	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTR	Noavg 95¢	$200	$29.1	-$160.9	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 89¢	$150.2	$21.85	-$111.83	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$32.54	$21.42	-$11.12	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$0.27	$4.3	+$4.35	62% 35806-22243 (58049)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 96¢	$12.68	$1.84	-$10.38	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

looppau

Yes

Invested

$321.84

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

99%

15830-133 (15963)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$5,079.62

Value

$739.09

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$46.59

Value

$361.92

PnL

+$315.33

Record

76%

135-43 (178)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$2,469.46

Value

$359.31

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$1,366.7

Value

$198.85

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

3026-2973 (5999)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$151

Value

$129.03

PnL

-$17.35

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$375.23

Value

$54.6

PnL

-$282.91

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$357.02

Value

$51.95

PnL

-$266.65

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1CTR

Invested

$200

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$160.9

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$150.2

Value

$21.85

PnL

-$111.83

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$32.54

Value

$21.42

PnL

-$11.12

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$4.35

Record

62%

35806-22243 (58049)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$10.38

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.7%

13.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$582.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

682.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.