BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Ugo Humbert

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Humbert (63%) · Ugo Humbert at 69¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

Adolfo Vallejo32¢Ugo Humbert68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ugo Humbert

Consensus Traders

Ugo Humbert 63%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$123.22

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUgo Humbert at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adolfo Vallejo32%

Ugo Humbert69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Humbert5 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares12,583

Combined PnL+$122.76

Adolfo Vallejo3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,547

Combined PnL+$0.46

Ugo Humbert — 63%Adolfo Vallejo — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUgo Humbert 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Humbert 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Ugo Humbertavg 68¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$51.49	46% 33752-39417 (73169)
K5 k56CTR	Adolfo Vallejoavg 32.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$5.62	57% 909-677 (1586)
VeryLucky888	Ugo Humbertavg 66.5¢	$2.3K	$957.13	+$58.14	58% 53643-38159 (91802)
FL Flaznorp	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$578.16	$591.3	+$13.14	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
0xheavy888CTR	Adolfo Vallejoavg 32¢	$320	$315	-$5	56% 8974-7089 (16063)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Adolfo Vallejoavg 32¢	$10.24	$10.08	-$0.16	53% 28233-25512 (53745)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 70.1¢	$4.27	$4.11	-$0.09	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.38	+$0.08	53% 14808-13030 (27838)

ferrariChampions2026

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$7,003.07

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$51.49

Record

46%

33752-39417 (73169)

k56CTR

Adolfo Vallejo

Invested

$2,436.8

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$5.62

Record

57%

909-677 (1586)

VeryLucky888

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$2,309.68

Value

$957.13

PnL

+$58.14

Record

58%

53643-38159 (91802)

Flaznorp

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$578.16

Value

$591.3

PnL

+$13.14

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

0xheavy888CTR

Adolfo Vallejo

Invested

$320

Value

$315

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

8974-7089 (16063)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Adolfo Vallejo

Invested

$10.24

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

28233-25512 (53745)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

14808-13030 (27838)

Research grade

NeutralUgo Humbert at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUgo Humbert 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Humbert 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Humbert wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.