Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Boluspor leading at halftime?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.0K
-$421.41
86.1¢ → 49.5¢
-43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 86.5¢ | $507.37 | $288.37 | -$219 | 58% 49549-35643 (85192) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $83 | $183.5 | +$99.15 | 50% 27272-27188 (54460) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 71¢ | $227.2 | $161.6 | -$65.6 | 53% 59009-51318 (110327) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $5.72 | $116.6 | -$51.18 | 51% 23396-22163 (45559) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 84¢ | $176.71 | $104.15 | -$72.55 | 50% 35605-35075 (70680) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Noavg 87¢ | $173 | $98.43 | -$74.57 | 54% 5082-4300 (9382) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $65.25 | $37.13 | -$28.13 | 49% 14105-14667 (28772) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $21.9 | $12.38 | -$9.52 | 51% 11626-11045 (22671) |
Invested
$507.37
Value
$288.37
PnL
-$219
Record
58%
49549-35643 (85192)
Invested
$83
Value
$183.5
PnL
+$99.15
Record
50%
27272-27188 (54460)
RN1Invested
$227.2
Value
$161.6
PnL
-$65.6
Record
53%
59009-51318 (110327)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$116.6
PnL
-$51.18
Record
51%
23396-22163 (45559)
Invested
$176.71
Value
$104.15
PnL
-$72.55
Record
50%
35605-35075 (70680)
Invested
$173
Value
$98.43
PnL
-$74.57
Record
54%
5082-4300 (9382)
Invested
$65.25
Value
$37.13
PnL
-$28.13
Record
49%
14105-14667 (28772)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$12.38
PnL
-$9.52
Record
51%
11626-11045 (22671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.