Hersonissos 3: Oleksii Krutykh vs Oskari Paldanius

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Oskari Paldanius (67%) · Oskari Paldanius at 55¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 16

Oleksii Krutykh46¢Oskari Paldanius54¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oskari Paldanius

Consensus Traders

Oskari Paldanius 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$63.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralOskari Paldanius at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oskari Paldanius

12 of 18 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oleksii Krutykh46%

Oskari Paldanius55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oleksii Krutykh6 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares51,483

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Oskari Paldanius12 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares46,003

Combined PnL+$670.19

Oleksii Krutykh — 33%Oskari Paldanius — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Oleksii Krutykhavg 48.6¢	$24.8K	$22.7K	$-2.1K	47% 124-141 (265)
RN1	Oskari Paldaniusavg 53¢	$13.9K	$14.8K	+$931.42	53% 71843-63363 (135206)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 55.6¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$21.71	46% 33752-39417 (73169)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 55.6¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$115.75
└ Oleksii Krutykh leg	Oleksii Krutykhavg 44.8¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$94.04
VE Venusian	Oskari Paldaniusavg 55.8¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$156.9	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 43.8¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$249.88	51% 6049-5802 (11851)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$256.67
└ Oleksii Krutykh leg	Oleksii Krutykhavg 43.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$6.78
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 52.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$55.51	48% 71959-77656 (149615)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 52.8¢	$952.88	$1.0K	+$67.51
└ Oleksii Krutykh leg	Oleksii Krutykhavg 45¢	$360	$348	-$12
LI Limousin	Oskari Paldaniusavg 63.4¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$124.4	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
FL Flaznorp	Oskari Paldaniusavg 54.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.95	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
TH thestingsnake	Oskari Paldaniusavg 58.8¢	$927.11	$859.78	-$67.34	60% 4652-3138 (7790)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Oskari Paldaniusavg 53.2¢	$307.2	$297.12	-$10.08	55% 3927-3277 (7204)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Oskari Paldaniusavg 50.8¢	$200.74	$217.84	+$17.1	52% 6189-5710 (11899)
LI LightParadox	Oskari Paldaniusavg 47.9¢	$117.11	$162.44	+$45.33	46% 2566-3072 (5638)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 56.1¢	$160.8	$161.53	+$0.73	53% 15711-13877 (29588)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 56.1¢	$99.19	$98.12	-$1.06
└ Oleksii Krutykh leg	Oleksii Krutykhavg 43.2¢	$61.62	$63.41	+$1.8
MA MadridTime<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 45.2¢	$80.38	$98.11	+$2.6	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
machinelearned<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 54.1¢	$89.2	$95.5	+$6.3	54% 10486-8892 (19378)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 54.8¢	$73.01	$82.6	+$9.59	53% 6834-5981 (12815)
└ Oskari Paldanius leg	Oskari Paldaniusavg 54.8¢	$49.28	$50.85	+$1.57
└ Oleksii Krutykh leg	Oleksii Krutykhavg 32.5¢	$23.73	$31.76	+$8.02
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 54¢	$73.36	$74.04	+$0.68	65% 2214-1211 (3425)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Oleksii Krutykhavg 43.1¢	$377.46	$54.98	+$37.52	57% 217-162 (379)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 56¢	$40.59	$39.5	-$1.09	56% 8940-7061 (16001)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 53.8¢	$34.4	$34.88	+$0.48	49% 3734-3958 (7692)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 49.6¢	$6.66	$6.91	+$0.25	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Oskari Paldaniusavg 56.7¢	$5.67	$5.65	-$0.02	56% 1990-1540 (3530)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 55¢	$5.5	$4.45	-$1.05	53% 14808-13030 (27838)

robustmstCTR

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$24,804.17

Value

$22.7K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

47%

124-141 (265)

RN1

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$13,899.41

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$931.42

Record

53%

71843-63363 (135206)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$10,468.14

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$21.71

Record

46%

33752-39417 (73169)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$7,212.0155.6¢+$115.75

Oleksii Krutykh$3,256.1344.8¢-$94.04

Venusian

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$6,910.07

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$156.9

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$2,289.78

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$249.88

Record

51%

6049-5802 (11851)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$1,124.4446¢+$256.67

Oleksii Krutykh$1,165.3343.8¢-$6.78

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$1,312.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$55.51

Record

48%

71959-77656 (149615)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$952.8852.8¢+$67.51

Oleksii Krutykh$36045¢-$12

Limousin

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$1,463.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$124.4

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

Flaznorp

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$1,299.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.95

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

thestingsnake

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$927.11

Value

$859.78

PnL

-$67.34

Record

60%

4652-3138 (7790)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$307.2

Value

$297.12

PnL

-$10.08

Record

55%

3927-3277 (7204)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$200.74

Value

$217.84

PnL

+$17.1

Record

52%

6189-5710 (11899)

LightParadox

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$117.11

Value

$162.44

PnL

+$45.33

Record

46%

2566-3072 (5638)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$160.8

Value

$161.53

PnL

+$0.73

Record

53%

15711-13877 (29588)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$99.1956.1¢-$1.06

Oleksii Krutykh$61.6243.2¢+$1.8

MadridTime<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$80.38

Value

$98.11

PnL

+$2.6

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

machinelearned<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$89.2

Value

$95.5

PnL

+$6.3

Record

54%

10486-8892 (19378)

EulhunterARB<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$73.01

Value

$82.6

PnL

+$9.59

Record

53%

6834-5981 (12815)

Both legs:

Oskari Paldanius$49.2854.8¢+$1.57

Oleksii Krutykh$23.7332.5¢+$8.02

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$73.36

Value

$74.04

PnL

+$0.68

Record

65%

2214-1211 (3425)

thirdt1meCTR

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$377.46

Value

$54.98

PnL

+$37.52

Record

57%

217-162 (379)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$40.59

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$1.09

Record

56%

8940-7061 (16001)

efntrickCTR<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$34.4

Value

$34.88

PnL

+$0.48

Record

49%

3734-3958 (7692)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

SchruteBucks<$100

Oskari Paldanius

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$0.02

Record

56%

1990-1540 (3530)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

14808-13030 (27838)

Research grade

NeutralOskari Paldanius at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oskari Paldanius

12 of 18 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oskari Paldanius wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.