Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (86%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 14¢ · $148 held · ended Oct 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$147.72
$1.15
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
138h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 52.6¢ | $58.67 | $95.99 | +$37.32 | 46% 30579-35678 (66257) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $18.37 | $28.72 | +$10.35 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $33.2 | $11.62 | -$21.58 | 57% 60639-45678 (106317) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.1¢ | $33.99 | $10.54 | -$23.45 | 50% 48590-48183 (96773) |
87 0x87a7...8ceaCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $2.34 | $0.84 | -$1.5 | — |
Invested
$58.67
Value
$95.99
PnL
+$37.32
Record
46%
30579-35678 (66257)
RN1<$100Invested
$18.37
Value
$28.72
PnL
+$10.35
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
Invested
$33.2
Value
$11.62
PnL
-$21.58
Record
57%
60639-45678 (106317)
Invested
$33.99
Value
$10.54
PnL
-$23.45
Record
50%
48590-48183 (96773)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$1.5
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.