Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 14

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$23.01

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 69.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$999.66

Total Shares1,416

Combined PnL+$20.59

Over5 traders

Total Value$119.05

Total Shares371

Combined PnL+$2.42

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

478h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 66.1¢	$699.55	$740.87	+$41.33	58% 49422-35504 (84926)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 78.9¢	$132.68	$162.66	-$22.64	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 68.3¢	$84.77	$86.3	+$1.53	50% 35477-34953 (70430)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$46.03	$50.17	+$4.14	49% 14098-14659 (28757)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 28.9¢	$43.23	$45.26	+$2.03	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 83¢	$41.8	$44.23	+$2.42	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$16.8	$23.29	+$6.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 83¢	$25.01	$20.94	-$4.07
RE retarbCTR<$100	Overavg 39.8¢	$19.23	$14.79	-$4.44	48% 4295-4600 (8895)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Underavg 67¢	$8.11	$8.43	+$0.32	51% 11618-11037 (22655)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$7.65	$5.83	-$1.82	56% 8643-6927 (15570)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$0.49	$3	+$2.51	57% 11829-8912 (20741)
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100	Underavg 67¢	$1.35	$1.39	+$0.05	64% 8638-4773 (13411)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$699.55

Value

$740.87

PnL

+$41.33

Record

58%

49422-35504 (84926)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$132.68

Value

$162.66

PnL

-$22.64

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$84.77

Value

$86.3

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

35477-34953 (70430)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.03

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$4.14

Record

49%

14098-14659 (28757)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.23

Value

$45.26

PnL

+$2.03

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$41.8

Value

$44.23

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

Both legs:

Invested

$19.23

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$4.44

Record

48%

4295-4600 (8895)

iWasEnough<$100

Under

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

11618-11037 (22655)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$1.82

Record

56%

8643-6927 (15570)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

PnL

+$2.51

Record

57%

11829-8912 (20741)

youcanbuythisbot<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

8638-4773 (13411)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

478h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.