Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Athletic Club (38%) · Athletic Club at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Athletic Club
8
Athletic Club 38%
$1.6K
-$33.01
87.7¢ → 76¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAthletic Club at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Athletic Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Athletic Clubavg 88¢ | $880 | $760 | -$150 | 56% 7690-6106 (13796) |
UP UpTheBlues | Athletic Clubavg 86.8¢ | $396.67 | $347.32 | -$49.35 | 58% 49585-35695 (85280) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 12¢ | $131.51 | $262.2 | +$130.69 | 51% 23549-22308 (45857) |
38 38791873984189 | Athletic Clubavg 88¢ | $88 | $142.3 | -$27.93 | 47% 14501-16071 (30572) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 13.1¢ | $22.91 | $54.45 | +$31.55 | 58% 18891-13903 (32794) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 12¢ | $18 | $48 | +$30 | 50% 27453-27352 (54805) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 13¢ | $0.97 | $2.33 | +$1.36 | 66% 23882-12090 (35972) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 12¢ | $0.68 | $1.36 | +$0.68 | 53% 59235-51541 (110776) |
Invested
$880
Value
$760
PnL
-$150
Record
56%
7690-6106 (13796)
Invested
$396.67
Value
$347.32
PnL
-$49.35
Record
58%
49585-35695 (85280)
Invested
$131.51
Value
$262.2
PnL
+$130.69
Record
51%
23549-22308 (45857)
Invested
$88
Value
$142.3
PnL
-$27.93
Record
47%
14501-16071 (30572)
Invested
$22.91
Value
$54.45
PnL
+$31.55
Record
58%
18891-13903 (32794)
Invested
$18
Value
$48
PnL
+$30
Record
50%
27453-27352 (54805)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$1.36
Record
66%
23882-12090 (35972)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.68
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
59235-51541 (110776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Athletic Club — $760
UpTheBlues
Athletic Club — $347.32
Flaznorp
CTRRayo Vallecano de Madrid — $262.2
38791873984189
Athletic Club — $142.3
ghorrock
CTRRayo Vallecano de Madrid — $54.45
GoalLineGhost
CTRRayo Vallecano de Madrid — $48
pauleta23
CTRRayo Vallecano de Madrid — $2.33
RN1
CTRRayo Vallecano de Madrid — $1.36