Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Athletic Club leading at halftime?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 44¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 10

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$739.89

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 43.5¢

-38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,838

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,013

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812	Yesavg 30.1¢	$2.0K	$3.5K	+$1.7K	25% 86-260 (346)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 69.9¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$730.36	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 71.8¢	$851.2	$515.91	-$335.29	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
RN1	Yesavg 21¢	$36.72	$109.14	+$72.42	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$41.4	$27.9	-$15.3	57% 27306-20190 (47496)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

25%

86-260 (346)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,948.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$730.36

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$851.2

Value

$515.91

PnL

-$335.29

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$36.72

Value

$109.14

PnL

+$72.42

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$15.3

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.