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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
HomeRunHazardkeeptheblueflagflyinghighPavika
Record (consensus markets)54% (361–305, n=666)46% (385–445, n=830)100% (1–0, n=1)
Consensus PnL$444K$502K$116K
Tracked asPM monthly #6PM monthly #19PM monthly #271
Sides with the consensus77% (123 of 159 open)68% (43 of 63 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47%100% of 280 at avg 51¢, ROI +44%100% of 1 at avg 48¢, ROI +52%
Entries under 30¢1% (won 100% of 2)6% (won 100% of 17)0%
Entries 30–50¢32% (won 100% of 62)38% (won 100% of 105)100% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢59% (won 100% of 115)49% (won 100% of 137)0%
Entries 70¢ and up8% (won 100% of 15)8% (won 100% of 21)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHomeRunHazardkeeptheblueflagflyinghighPavika
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Knicks
Knicks $5.1KPacers $20K—
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hawks
Hawks $4.4KBulls $13K—
Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $6.5KUnder $5.4K—
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pelicans
Grizzlies $2.5KPelicans $7.6K—
Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $8.0KUnder $256—
Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $4.0KUnder $2.8K—
Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $2.5KUnder $3.4K—
Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $408Under $1.6K—
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)
same side · consensus Pacers
Knicks $6Knicks $26K—
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $5.1KOver $4.8K—
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh
same side · consensus Pittsburgh
Florida State $3.0KFlorida State $2.8K—
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)
same side · consensus Pelicans
Pelicans $2.1KPelicans $3.4K—
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
same side · consensus Pacers
Knicks $4.1KKnicks $397—
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh: O/U 51.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $1.4KOver $789—