Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankPan9Xprimm
Record (consensus markets)45% (576–717, n=1293)65% (4227–2239, n=6466)50% (1116–1127, n=2243)
Consensus PnL$7.3M$21K$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #3was PM monthly #979PM monthly #51
Sides with the consensus77% (27 of 35 open)53% (122 of 229 open)68% (15 of 22 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=100, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won97% of 586 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 1212 at avg 72¢, ROI +25%99% of 1020 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)4% (won 100% of 43)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 206)13% (won 100% of 156)41% (won 99% of 418)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 204)26% (won 100% of 310)49% (won 99% of 504)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)58% (won 100% of 703)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 17 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankPan9Xprimm
Raptors vs. Bucks
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $523KBucks $87—
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $150KThunder $83—
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Thunder
Grizzlies $14KThunder $14—
Spread: SMU (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech
—SMU $56Virginia Tech $3.5K
Virginia Tech vs. SMU: O/U 59.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $90Over $1.4K
Spread: New Mexico (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Nevada
—New Mexico $8Nevada $891
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $769Bucks $36—
South Florida vs. East Carolina: O/U 37.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $123Under $508
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
Timberwolves $399Pelicans $18—
Spread: SMU (-13.5)
opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech
—SMU $12Virginia Tech $381
Spread: SMU (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus SMU
—SMU $94Virginia Tech $226
Spread: South Florida (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus East Carolina
—East Carolina $19South Florida $262
Spread: South Florida (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus East Carolina
—East Carolina $29South Florida $213
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bucks
Raptors $214Bucks $14—
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pelicans
Timberwolves $199Pelicans $14—
South Florida vs. East Carolina
opposite sides · consensus South Florida
—East Carolina $157South Florida $31
Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
Jazz $14Mavericks $17—
Virginia Tech vs. SMU
same side · consensus SMU
—SMU $313SMU $29K
Spread: SMU (-6.5)
same side · consensus SMU
—SMU $114SMU $3.4K
Spread: Nebraska (-4.5)
same side · consensus Illinois
—Nebraska $31Nebraska $2.0K
Nebraska vs. Illinois
same side · consensus Nebraska
—Nebraska $94Nebraska $580
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)
same side · consensus Mavericks
Jazz $396Jazz $2—
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
same side · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $50Grizzlies $38—
Virginia Tech vs. SMU: O/U 55.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $53Over $20
Spread: SMU (-4.5)
same side · consensus SMU
—SMU $19SMU $3