Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Thunder (69%). 10 of 40 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

10 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (25%) · Grizzlies at 32¢ · $639K held · ended Nov 7

Thunder69¢Grizzlies31¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 25%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$639.3K

Combined PnL

$10.5K

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 31.5¢

-22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

10 of 40 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder69%

Grizzlies32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies10 traders

Total Value$321.9K

Total Shares870,107

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Thunder30 traders

Total Value$298.4K

Total Shares429,837

Combined PnL+$12.8K

Grizzlies — 25%Thunder — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Grizzliesavg 40.9¢	$151.0K	$149.6K	$-1.3K	42% 634-881 (1515)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Grizzliesavg 40.2¢	$92.0K	$94.5K	+$2.5K	50% 7658-7804 (15462)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Thunderavg 60.2¢	$66.3K	$71.0K	+$4.7K	46% 1684-1976 (3660)
nigiri99	Thunderavg 60.3¢	$58.5K	$65.5K	+$7.0K	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Grizzliesavg 40.8¢	$46.9K	$44.8K	$-2.0K	53% 661-579 (1240)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 60¢	$38.2K	$39.1K	+$914.23	54% 18312-15411 (33723)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Thunderavg 60¢	$28.7K	$29.6K	+$955.23	47% 367-419 (786)
CH ch27erCTR	Grizzliesavg 40.3¢	$25.8K	$24.3K	$-1.4K	62% 29-18 (47)
BI big8betz	Thunderavg 63.2¢	$20.0K	$19.6K	-$373.29	48% 44-48 (92)
BO Bozos14	Thunderavg 60¢	$15.0K	$14.9K	-$125	49% 143-150 (293)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Thunderavg 60¢	$18.2K	$13.4K	+$185.72	55% 3680-3039 (6719)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 60¢	$9.0K	$10.3K	+$775
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 41.6¢	$4.1K	$3.1K	-$589.27
HI hi774c	Thunderavg 60¢	$11.4K	$10.3K	$-1.0K	46% 5267-6108 (11375)
IM imjustkenisghey	Thunderavg 60¢	$9.3K	$9.4K	+$77.32	49% 441-465 (906)
LI LinkE5	Thunderavg 63.2¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$141.36	47% 743-829 (1572)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 60.2¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	-$19.5	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
drainedandpoorCTR	Grizzliesavg 39.7¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$73.97	48% 661-712 (1373)
IC ic4cream	Thunderavg 60.2¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$163.08	56% 2780-2195 (4975)
WL Wldntulike2know	Thunderavg 59.6¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$150.25	49% 380-390 (770)
ET Ethanael02	Thunderavg 62.2¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$31.88	63% 113-65 (178)
SU SunlineTicker	Thunderavg 60.4¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$80.35	60% 4637-3040 (7677)
TA takeormake	Thunderavg 57.3¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$209.04	52% 4962-4513 (9475)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 60¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$21.97	64% 10106-5651 (15757)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 38.4¢	$434.05	$446.02	+$11.97
VeryLucky888	Thunderavg 60.3¢	$4.3K	$1.5K	+$45.88	58% 47174-34031 (81205)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Thunderavg 59.9¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	+$45.64	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 59.9¢	$932.14	$1.1K	+$99.61
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 38.5¢	$439.73	$360.09	-$53.97
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 60.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.83	51% 26597-25202 (51799)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 60.3¢	$752.98	$793.34	+$40.36
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 39.1¢	$463.58	$433.04	-$30.53

BreakTheBankCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$150,993.34

Value

$149.6K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

42%

634-881 (1515)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$91,996.73

Value

$94.5K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

50%

7658-7804 (15462)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Thunder

Invested

$66,320.03

Value

$71.0K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

46%

1684-1976 (3660)

nigiri99

Thunder

Invested

$58,549.53

Value

$65.5K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$46,895.78

Value

$44.8K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

661-579 (1240)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$38,168.67

Value

$39.1K

PnL

+$914.23

Record

54%

18312-15411 (33723)

Multicoloured-Serf

Thunder

Invested

$28,657

Value

$29.6K

PnL

+$955.23

Record

47%

367-419 (786)

ch27erCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$25,761.71

Value

$24.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

62%

29-18 (47)

big8betz

Thunder

Invested

$20,019.91

Value

$19.6K

PnL

-$373.29

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

Bozos14

Thunder

Invested

$15,000

Value

$14.9K

PnL

-$125

Record

49%

143-150 (293)

Anon455ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$18,217.46

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$185.72

Record

55%

3680-3039 (6719)

Both legs:

Thunder$8,999.9960¢+$775

Grizzlies$4,135.3841.6¢-$589.27

hi774c

Thunder

Invested

$11,350.81

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

46%

5267-6108 (11375)

imjustkenisghey

Thunder

Invested

$9,277.8

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$77.32

Record

49%

441-465 (906)

LinkE5

Thunder

Invested

$7,581.36

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$141.36

Record

47%

743-829 (1572)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$6,793.7

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$19.5

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

drainedandpoorCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,769.33

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$73.97

Record

48%

661-712 (1373)

ic4cream

Thunder

Invested

$5,483.88

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$163.08

Record

56%

2780-2195 (4975)

Wldntulike2know

Thunder

Invested

$4,769.67

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$150.25

Record

49%

380-390 (770)

Ethanael02

Thunder

Invested

$3,963.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$31.88

Record

63%

113-65 (178)

SunlineTicker

Thunder

Invested

$3,009.73

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$80.35

Record

60%

4637-3040 (7677)

takeormake

Thunder

Invested

$1,909.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$209.04

Record

52%

4962-4513 (9475)

NM-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,634.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$21.97

Record

64%

10106-5651 (15757)

Both legs:

Thunder$1,199.9960¢+$10

Grizzlies$434.0538.4¢+$11.97

VeryLucky888

Thunder

Invested

$4,287.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45.88

Record

58%

47174-34031 (81205)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,870.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$45.64

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

Both legs:

Thunder$932.1459.9¢+$99.61

Grizzlies$439.7338.5¢-$53.97

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,216.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.83

Record

51%

26597-25202 (51799)

Both legs:

Thunder$752.9860.3¢+$40.36

Grizzlies$463.5839.1¢-$30.53

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

10 of 40 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.