Virginia Tech vs. SMU

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold SMU (80%) · SMU at 67¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 7

Virginia Tech34¢SMU66¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SMU

Consensus Traders

SMU 80%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$86.56

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSMU at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SMU

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Virginia Tech34%

SMU67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SMU8 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares22,512

Combined PnL+$96.16

Virginia Tech2 traders

Total Value$477.91

Total Shares1,448

Combined PnL-$9.6

SMU — 80%Virginia Tech — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	SMUavg 66¢	$10.3K	$10.4K	+$78.13	56% 8112-6431 (14543)
VeryLucky888	SMUavg 66¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	+$28	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
latvian.demon	SMUavg 67.7¢	$676.63	$664.99	-$11.63	54% 795-666 (1461)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Virginia Techavg 33.7¢	$485.5	$475.93	-$9.57	42% 8080-11283 (19363)
NM NM-P	SMUavg 66¢	$330	$332.5	+$2.5	64% 10073-5631 (15704)
38 38791873984189<$100	SMUavg 66.8¢	$96.74	$97.82	+$1.07	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100	SMUavg 66.7¢	$89.66	$88.08	-$1.58	55% 3126-2515 (5641)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	SMUavg 67¢	$38.84	$38.26	-$0.58	64% 2015-1119 (3134)
PA Pan9X<$100	SMUavg 66¢	$33	$33.25	+$0.25	54% 10107-8484 (18591)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Virginia Techavg 33.7¢	$2.02	$1.98	-$0.03	49% 6359-6518 (12877)

0xheavy888

SMU

Invested

$10,312.5

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$78.13

Record

56%

8112-6431 (14543)

VeryLucky888

SMU

Invested

$3,497.96

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$28

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

latvian.demon

SMU

Invested

$676.63

Value

$664.99

PnL

-$11.63

Record

54%

795-666 (1461)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Virginia Tech

Invested

$485.5

Value

$475.93

PnL

-$9.57

Record

42%

8080-11283 (19363)

NM-P

SMU

Invested

$330

Value

$332.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10073-5631 (15704)

38791873984189<$100

SMU

Invested

$96.74

Value

$97.82

PnL

+$1.07

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100

SMU

Invested

$89.66

Value

$88.08

PnL

-$1.58

Record

55%

3126-2515 (5641)

darkumbreon88<$100

SMU

Invested

$38.84

Value

$38.26

PnL

-$0.58

Record

64%

2015-1119 (3134)

Pan9X<$100

SMU

Invested

$33

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

10107-8484 (18591)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Virginia Tech

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

6359-6518 (12877)

Research grade

NeutralSMU at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

SMU

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SMU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.