Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (83%) · Pelicans at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Timberwolves49¢Pelicans51¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$26.2

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves49%

Pelicans52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,368

Combined PnL+$25.58

Timberwolves1 trader

Total Value$197.53

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$0.62

Pelicans — 83%Timberwolves — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Pelicansavg 50¢	$636	$648.72	+$12.72	52% 4959-4511 (9470)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Pelicansavg 51¢	$369.21	$372.83	+$3.62	42% 8022-11209 (19231)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$286.76	$286.14	-$0.62	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$171.5	$169.75	-$1.75
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 51¢	$115.26	$116.39	+$1.13
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$196.91	$197.53	+$0.62	54% 18309-15408 (33717)
38 38791873984189	Pelicansavg 49¢	$206.94	$105.07	+$7.13	48% 61878-66736 (128614)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Pelicansavg 49¢	$68.75	$70.2	+$1.45	51% 3823-3747 (7570)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 49¢	$35.51	$36.96	+$1.45
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$33.24	$33.24	+$0
SE sentrio<$100	Pelicansavg 51¢	$56.21	$56.76	+$0.55	50% 26091-25752 (51843)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pelicansavg 49.3¢	$37	$32.45	+$1.56	54% 10092-8474 (18566)

takeormake

Pelicans

Invested

$636

Value

$648.72

PnL

+$12.72

Record

52%

4959-4511 (9470)

ferrariChampions2026

Pelicans

Invested

$369.21

Value

$372.83

PnL

+$3.62

Record

42%

8022-11209 (19231)

NM-PARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$286.76

Value

$286.14

PnL

-$0.62

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$171.549¢-$1.75

Pelicans$115.2651¢+$1.13

HomeRunHazardCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$196.91

Value

$197.53

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

18309-15408 (33717)

38791873984189

Pelicans

Invested

$206.94

Value

$105.07

PnL

+$7.13

Record

48%

61878-66736 (128614)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$68.75

Value

$70.2

PnL

+$1.45

Record

51%

3823-3747 (7570)

Both legs:

Pelicans$35.5149¢+$1.45

Timberwolves$33.2449¢+$0

sentrio<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$56.21

Value

$56.76

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

26091-25752 (51843)

Pan9X<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$37

Value

$32.45

PnL

+$1.56

Record

54%

10092-8474 (18566)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.