Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold South Florida, while the market favors East Carolina (52%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

South Florida vs. East Carolina

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold South Florida (60%) · South Florida at 49¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 7

South Florida49¢East Carolina51¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Florida

Consensus Traders

South Florida 60%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$40.93

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 48.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Florida at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Florida

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors East Carolina 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Florida49%

East Carolina52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Florida9 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,173

Combined PnL+$220.13

East Carolina6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,766

Combined PnL-$179.2

South Florida — 60%East Carolina — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on South Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on South Florida) and the top 1000 (12 on East Carolina) disagree here.

whaleSouth Florida 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEast Carolina 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Florida 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000East Carolina 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	South Floridaavg 46.7¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$177.06	42% 8080-11283 (19363)
VeryLucky888CTR	South Floridaavg 47.7¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	-$25.66	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
38 38791873984189	East Carolinaavg 54¢	$2.8K	$1.4K	-$69.58	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	East Carolinaavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$111.93	55% 3744-3059 (6803)
PU purplegattoCTR	South Floridaavg 45.7¢	$793.82	$850.35	+$56.53	49% 6359-6518 (12877)
BA bands1	East Carolinaavg 51¢	$649.92	$649.92	+$6.37	49% 414-427 (841)
65 6512395314597884CTR	South Floridaavg 47.9¢	$488.13	$494.25	+$6.12	51% 4830-4697 (9527)
HO HomeRunHazard	East Carolinaavg 51.4¢	$411.34	$408.37	-$2.97	54% 18312-15410 (33722)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	South Floridaavg 48¢	$288	$294	+$6	51% 1988-1923 (3911)
0xheavy888CTR	South Floridaavg 48¢	$262.38	$265.11	+$2.73	56% 8112-6431 (14543)
LI LimousinCTR	South Floridaavg 49.7¢	$108.21	$105.49	-$2.72	51% 1672-1583 (3255)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 48¢	$79.94	$63.75	+$0.82	54% 10107-8484 (18591)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 49.7¢	$49.63	$48.88	-$0.75	48% 7427-7962 (15389)
SE sentrio<$100	East Carolinaavg 51¢	$41.73	$41.73	+$0	50% 26140-25802 (51942)
Haradwaith<$100	East Carolinaavg 55¢	$30.93	$14.03	-$1.1	40% 6613-9962 (16575)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

South Florida

Invested

$3,670.71

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$177.06

Record

42%

8080-11283 (19363)

VeryLucky888CTR

South Florida

Invested

$3,158.31

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$25.66

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

38791873984189

East Carolina

Invested

$2,783

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$69.58

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

JAMJAMJAM4

East Carolina

Invested

$1,538.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$111.93

Record

55%

3744-3059 (6803)

purplegattoCTR

South Florida

Invested

$793.82

Value

$850.35

PnL

+$56.53

Record

49%

6359-6518 (12877)

bands1

East Carolina

Invested

$649.92

Value

$649.92

PnL

+$6.37

Record

49%

414-427 (841)

6512395314597884CTR

South Florida

Invested

$488.13

Value

$494.25

PnL

+$6.12

Record

51%

4830-4697 (9527)

HomeRunHazard

East Carolina

Invested

$411.34

Value

$408.37

PnL

-$2.97

Record

54%

18312-15410 (33722)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

South Florida

Invested

$288

Value

$294

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

1988-1923 (3911)

0xheavy888CTR

South Florida

Invested

$262.38

Value

$265.11

PnL

+$2.73

Record

56%

8112-6431 (14543)

LimousinCTR

South Florida

Invested

$108.21

Value

$105.49

PnL

-$2.72

Record

51%

1672-1583 (3255)

Pan9XCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$79.94

Value

$63.75

PnL

+$0.82

Record

54%

10107-8484 (18591)

OddstormCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$49.63

Value

$48.88

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

7427-7962 (15389)

sentrio<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$41.73

Value

$41.73

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26140-25802 (51942)

Haradwaith<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$30.93

Value

$14.03

PnL

-$1.1

Record

40%

6613-9962 (16575)

Research grade

NeutralSouth Florida at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

South Florida

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors East Carolina 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on South Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on South Florida) and the top 1000 (12 on East Carolina) disagree here.

whaleSouth Florida 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEast Carolina 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Florida 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000East Carolina 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Florida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.