Nebraska vs. Illinois

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nebraska (11%) · Nebraska at 65¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 7

Nebraska65¢Illinois35¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

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Neutral

Nebraska

Consensus Traders

Nebraska 11%

Total Value

$30.8K

Combined PnL

-$204.05

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska65%

Illinois36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nebraska1 trader

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares32,319

Combined PnL-$77.82

Illinois8 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares27,607

Combined PnL-$126.24

Nebraska — 11%Illinois — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VigorishVault	Nebraskaavg 64.7¢	$20.9K	$20.8K	-$77.82	64% 23-13 (36)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Illinoisavg 36¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$55.46	49% 441-465 (906)
38 38791873984189CTR	Illinoisavg 35.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$13.84	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Illinoisavg 36¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$30	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Illinoisavg 36.7¢	$967.83	$936.41	-$31.42	42% 8092-11298 (19390)
VeryLucky888CTR	Illinoisavg 35¢	$2.7K	$387.57	+$5.46	58% 47174-34031 (81205)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 36¢	$27.36	$26.98	-$0.38	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 36¢	$16.2	$15.98	-$0.23	50% 8371-8426 (16797)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 36.7¢	$11.23	$10.87	-$0.36	49% 1653-1717 (3370)

VigorishVault

Nebraska

Invested

$20,923.25

Value

$20.8K

PnL

-$77.82

Record

64%

23-13 (36)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Illinois

Invested

$3,993.48

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$55.46

Record

49%

441-465 (906)

38791873984189CTR

Illinois

Invested

$2,530.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$13.84

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

6512395314597884CTR

Illinois

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Illinois

Invested

$967.83

Value

$936.41

PnL

-$31.42

Record

42%

8092-11298 (19390)

VeryLucky888CTR

Illinois

Invested

$2,700.29

Value

$387.57

PnL

+$5.46

Record

58%

47174-34031 (81205)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$27.36

Value

$26.98

PnL

-$0.38

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

RLWGCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$16.2

Value

$15.98

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

8371-8426 (16797)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$11.23

Value

$10.87

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

1653-1717 (3370)

Research grade

NeutralNebraska at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nebraska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.