Raptors vs. Bucks

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (80%) · Raptors at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Raptors70¢Bucks30¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$60.17

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors70%

Bucks31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,473

Combined PnL-$61.29

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,934

Combined PnL+$1.11

Raptors — 80%Bucks — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Raptorsavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	58% 47026-33907 (80933)
HE Herdonia	Raptorsavg 73.4¢	$679.15	$638.55	-$35.96	51% 3823-3747 (7570)
HO HomeRunHazard	Raptorsavg 72¢	$632.33	$606.33	+$5.03	54% 18308-15405 (33713)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Bucksavg 31¢	$606.56	$597.64	-$8.92	53% 661-579 (1240)
nigiri99CTR	Bucksavg 29¢	$16.82	$592.5	+$10.03	46% 8686-10358 (19044)
SE sentrio	Raptorsavg 72¢	$552.16	$529.15	-$19.17	50% 26081-25734 (51815)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 72¢	$363.6	$100.43	-$4.17	48% 61747-66610 (128357)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Bucksavg 30¢	$74.22	$73.5	-$1	48% 7419-7957 (15376)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 30¢	$50.08	$50.04	-$1.17
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 71¢	$24.14	$23.46	+$0.17
PA Pan9X	Raptorsavg 72.8¢	$100.93	$72.13	-$6.06	54% 10072-8456 (18528)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Raptorsavg 69¢	$69	$69	+$0	53% 12541-11252 (23793)
0xheavy888<$100	Raptorsavg 72.7¢	$21.8	$20.7	-$0.95	56% 8094-6421 (14515)

VeryLucky888

Raptors

Invested

$1,053.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

47026-33907 (80933)

Herdonia

Raptors

Invested

$679.15

Value

$638.55

PnL

-$35.96

Record

51%

3823-3747 (7570)

HomeRunHazard

Raptors

Invested

$632.33

Value

$606.33

PnL

+$5.03

Record

54%

18308-15405 (33713)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Bucks

Invested

$606.56

Value

$597.64

PnL

-$8.92

Record

53%

661-579 (1240)

nigiri99CTR

Bucks

Invested

$16.82

Value

$592.5

PnL

+$10.03

Record

46%

8686-10358 (19044)

sentrio

Raptors

Invested

$552.16

Value

$529.15

PnL

-$19.17

Record

50%

26081-25734 (51815)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$363.6

Value

$100.43

PnL

-$4.17

Record

48%

61747-66610 (128357)

OddstormARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$74.22

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

7419-7957 (15376)

Both legs:

Bucks$50.0830¢-$1.17

Raptors$24.1471¢+$0.17

Pan9X

Raptors

Invested

$100.93

Value

$72.13

PnL

-$6.06

Record

54%

10072-8456 (18528)

BoomLaLa<$100

Raptors

Invested

$69

Value

$69

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

12541-11252 (23793)

0xheavy888<$100

Raptors

Invested

$21.8

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$0.95

Record

56%

8094-6421 (14515)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.