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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankHomeRunHazardhortikkkkeeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Record (consensus markets)55% (58–47, n=105)52% (590–548, n=1138)67% (6–3, n=9)48% (670–739, n=1409)
Consensus PnL$381K$400K$526$885K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #9PM monthly #883PM monthly #14
Sides with the consensus50% (2 of 4 open)66% (50 of 76 open)44% (4 of 9 open)54% (22 of 41 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=37, ROI +45%
  • NFL +46 pts n=11, ROI +47%
not computed yet
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 58 at avg 53¢, ROI +44%100% of 317 at avg 53¢, ROI +48%—100% of 467 at avg 52¢, ROI +45%
Entries under 30¢0%2% (won 100% of 6)—5% (won 100% of 23)
Entries 30–50¢43% (won 100% of 25)32% (won 100% of 100)—34% (won 100% of 159)
Entries 50–70¢52% (won 100% of 30)60% (won 100% of 189)—52% (won 100% of 243)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 100% of 3)7% (won 100% of 22)—9% (won 100% of 42)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankHomeRunHazardhortikkkkeeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Vikings vs. Packers
opposite sides · consensus Packers
—Vikings $6.8K—Packers $15K
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
—Spurs $185—Jazz $4.7K
Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 214.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $1.8K—Under $1.8K
Spread: Clippers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Hornets $252—Clippers $2.2K
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
—76ers $18—Pacers $121
Seahawks vs. Raiders
same side · consensus Seahawks
—Seahawks $20K—Seahawks $19K
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
same side · consensus Lions
—Patriots $6.1K—Patriots $19K
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
same side · consensus Packers
—Vikings $7.9K—Vikings $14K
Spread: Texans (-3.5)
same side · consensus Browns
—Browns $2.4K—Browns $19K
Rams vs. Cardinals
same side · consensus Rams
—Rams $5.4K—Rams $4.9K
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)
same side · consensus 49ers
—Cowboys $2.3K—Cowboys $3.3K
Spread: Celtics (-13.5)
same side · consensus Mavericks
—Mavericks $2.4K—Mavericks $533