Spread: Clippers (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (67%) · Hornets at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Clippers49¢Hornets51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 67%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$46.87

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clippers49%

Hornets52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,811

Combined PnL+$51.36

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,073

Combined PnL-$98.23

Hornets — 67%Clippers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Hornetsavg 49¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$46.06	69% 1738-775 (2513)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$97.59	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hornetsavg 50¢	$252.38	$252.38	+$0	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
NM NM-P	Hornetsavg 50¢	$179.89	$185.19	+$5.3	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-P	Hornetsavg 50¢	$175	$175	+$0	42% 547-747 (1294)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$62.74	$62.1	-$0.64	61% 1081-678 (1759)

SunlineTicker

Hornets

Invested

$2,257

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$46.06

Record

69%

1738-775 (2513)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$2,638.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$97.59

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

HomeRunHazard

Hornets

Invested

$252.38

Value

$252.38

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

NM-P

Hornets

Invested

$179.89

Value

$185.19

PnL

+$5.3

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-P

Hornets

Invested

$175

Value

$175

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$62.74

Value

$62.1

PnL

-$0.64

Record

61%

1081-678 (1759)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.