Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
AlmostNoAwarenessferrariChampions2026FlaznorpRN1
Record (consensus markets)61% (118–74, n=192)43% (11777–15355, n=27132)55% (13382–10751, n=24133)48% (19707–21460, n=41167)
Consensus PnL$132-$9.5M$1.4M$14.9M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #977was PM monthly #87PM monthly #14PM monthly #35 + pinned
Sides with the consensus56% (5 of 9 open)75% (3 of 4 open)69% (78 of 113 open)54% (14 of 26 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topicTech −6 pts, n=28—NFL −24 pts, n=12—
Settled positions, side won66% of 166 at avg 65¢, ROI +8%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 3115 at avg 55¢, ROI +22%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢19% (won 19% of 31)4% (won 97% of 237)30% (won 9% of 919)10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢11% (won 26% of 19)26% (won 100% of 1446)15% (won 37% of 455)22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢10% (won 71% of 17)40% (won 100% of 2198)14% (won 63% of 439)35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up60% (won 88% of 99)30% (won 100% of 1675)42% (won 94% of 1302)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

10 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAlmostNoAwarenessferrariChampions2026FlaznorpRN1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $1.2KUnder $12KOver $2.2K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $4.5KYes $1.9K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $872Over $3.0K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $3.1KYes $7
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $141Yes $2.8K—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $2.6KOver $36
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $446Under $1.4K
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 2 - 1 Boluspor?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $873Yes $315
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $491No $524
Athletic Club leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $837Yes $60
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 1 - 1 Boluspor?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $256No $12
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?
same side · consensus No
——No $13KNo $2.4K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $1.3K—Over $360
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5
same side · consensus Under
——Over $9Over $1.5K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Over
——Under $95Under $1.1K
Spread: Umraniyespor (-1.5)
same side · consensus Boluspor
——Boluspor $751Boluspor $44
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $721Under $20
Boluspor leading at halftime?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $173Yes $240
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
same side · consensus Athletic Club
——Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $246Rayo Vallecano de Madrid $1
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $203Under $41
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Over
——Over $51Over $29