Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 67% (99–49, n=148) · PM monthly #985 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.8K
Record
99W / 49L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 148 settled
Batting Avg
12.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#576
Source
PM monthly #985
Record (90 d)
33/33 · 100%
Trades
231
Markets
188
Volume
$207.9K
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Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 6 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No $1.1K · now 33¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?No $830 · now 79¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yes $292 · now 8¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $153 · now 13¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (100% of 12)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes $52 · now 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes $19 · now 2¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 65¢- Esports
+15 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +12%
- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 80% of 15 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +13%
- Finance
+2 pts
side won 61% of 18 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +21%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 62% of 26 at an average 70¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 21% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 22% of 18)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 75% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 87% of 95)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.