Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 95¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 10

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$217.91

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 95¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares8,196

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares8,765

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

506h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 77¢	$4.3K	$5.2K	+$907.71	58% 49552-35660 (85212)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 84.2¢	$1.3K	$2.6K	+$297.96	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
RN1CTR	Overavg 24.8¢	$2.4K	$1.5K	-$908.14	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 23¢	$651.02	$141.53	-$509.49	57% 1088-834 (1922)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 83¢	$4.88	$5.63	+$0.75	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$6.7	$2.24	-$4.46	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13.9¢	$2.23	$0.8	-$1.43	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$1.3	$0.5	-$0.8	59% 31360-22035 (53395)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,302.88

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$907.71

Record

58%

49552-35660 (85212)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,291.38

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$297.96

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,407.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$908.14

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$651.02

Value

$141.53

PnL

-$509.49

Record

57%

1088-834 (1922)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.7

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$4.46

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$1.43

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.8

Record

59%

31360-22035 (53395)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

506h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.