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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | ferdinand2 | HomeRunHazard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (61–40, n=101) | 73% (237–87, n=324) | 53% (295–258, n=553) |
| Consensus PnL | $172K | $2.2K | $304K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #61 | was PM monthly #491 | PM monthly #7 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 54% (68 of 125 open) | 75% (48 of 64 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −1 pts, n=90 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 59 at avg 61¢, ROI +41% | 39% of 175 at avg 39¢, ROI −1% | 100% of 97 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 100% of 2) | 49% (won 7% of 85) | 1% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 100% of 6) | 15% (won 37% of 27) | 32% (won 100% of 31) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 63% (won 100% of 37) | 15% (won 70% of 27) | 57% (won 100% of 55) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 100% of 14) | 21% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 100% of 10) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
13 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | ferdinand2 | HomeRunHazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 42.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $41 | Under $7.3K |
| Vikings vs. Packers same side · consensus Packers | — | Vikings $32 | Vikings $6.2K |
| Spread: Packers (-5.5) same side · consensus Vikings | — | Vikings $43 | Vikings $5.6K |
| Seahawks vs. Raiders same side · consensus Seahawks | — | Seahawks $15 | Seahawks $1.5K |
| Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 221.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $35 | Over $1.4K |
| Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $5 | Over $1.4K |
| Avalanche vs. Senators same side · consensus Avalanche | — | Senators $76 | Senators $1.3K |
| Dolphins vs. Colts same side · consensus Colts | — | Colts $56 | Colts $1.1K |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) same side · consensus Kraken | — | Kraken $36 | Kraken $845 |
| Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $3 | Over $699 |
| Monmouth Hawks vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats: O/U 147.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $19 | Under $319 |
| Spread: Texas A&M Aggies (-7.5) same side · consensus Oklahoma State Cowboys | — | Texas A&M Aggies $23 | Texas A&M Aggies $232 |
| Loyola Marymount Lions vs. South Alabama Jaguars same side · consensus South Alabama Jaguars | — | South Alabama Jaguars $14 | South Alabama Jaguars $186 |