Monmouth Hawks vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats: O/U 147.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 57¢ · $662 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$661.69
-$3.32
54.5¢ → 57.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54.4¢ | $340.95 | $360.14 | +$19.19 | 57% 3356-2538 (5894) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 45.7¢ | $227.87 | $209.57 | -$18.3 | 54% 236-199 (435) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $55.35 | $51.66 | -$3.69 | 30% 67-158 (225) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 54.9¢ | $19.98 | $20.95 | +$0.97 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $45 | $17.27 | -$1.23 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.1 | -$0.25 | 37% 428-735 (1163) |
Invested
$340.95
Value
$360.14
PnL
+$19.19
Record
57%
3356-2538 (5894)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$227.87
Value
$209.57
PnL
-$18.3
Record
54%
236-199 (435)
Invested
$55.35
Value
$51.66
PnL
-$3.69
Record
30%
67-158 (225)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$20.95
PnL
+$0.97
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$17.27
PnL
-$1.23
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.25
Record
37%
428-735 (1163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.