Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold South Alabama Jaguars, while the market favors Loyola Marymount Lions (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. South Alabama Jaguars
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold South Alabama Jaguars (20%) · South Alabama Jaguars at 50¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
South Alabama Jaguars
5
South Alabama Jaguars 20%
$184.3
-$0.19
Research grade
AvoidSouth Alabama Jaguars at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Loyola Marymount Lions 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | South Alabama Jaguarsavg 49¢ | $161.64 | $161.64 | -$0 | 16% 97-512 (609) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 51¢ | $14.57 | $14.29 | -$0.29 | 57% 3356-2538 (5894) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 49¢ | $3.23 | $3.3 | +$0.07 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.58 | +$0.08 | 37% 428-735 (1163) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.5 | -$0.05 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
Invested
$161.64
Value
$161.64
PnL
-$0
Record
16%
97-512 (609)
Invested
$14.57
Value
$14.29
PnL
-$0.29
Record
57%
3356-2538 (5894)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
37%
428-735 (1163)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.