Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 221.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 17%
$4.3K
$5.36
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP AppleTiiime | Underavg 52¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$23.17 | 53% 90-79 (169) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$14.6 | 57% 3356-2538 (5894) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $269.33 | $266.52 | -$2.81 | 32% 489-1029 (1518) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 95% 76-4 (80) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $35.31 | $34.94 | -$0.37 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.93 | $2.9 | -$0.03 | 32% 496-1046 (1542) |
Invested
$2,409.43
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$23.17
Record
53%
90-79 (169)
Invested
$1,402
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$14.6
Record
57%
3356-2538 (5894)
Invested
$269.33
Value
$266.52
PnL
-$2.81
Record
32%
489-1029 (1518)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
95%
76-4 (80)
Invested
$35.31
Value
$34.94
PnL
-$0.37
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.03
Record
32%
496-1046 (1542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.