Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 42.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$8.1K
$412.53
51.6¢ → 54.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.7¢ | $6.8K | $7.2K | +$365.41 | 57% 3075-2312 (5387) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 50¢ | $521.5 | $568.44 | +$46.94 | 8% 37-423 (460) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 47.2¢ | $300.27 | $302.64 | +$2.37 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.2¢ | $196.77 | $189.82 | -$6.95 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $103.5 | $112.82 | +$9.32 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $11.95 | $12.29 | +$0.34 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.88 | $2.73 | -$0.15 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
Invested
$6,819.25
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$365.41
Record
57%
3075-2312 (5387)
Invested
$521.5
Value
$568.44
PnL
+$46.94
Record
8%
37-423 (460)
Invested
$300.27
Value
$302.64
PnL
+$2.37
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.95
Value
$12.29
PnL
+$0.34
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$0.15
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.