Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Hurricanes (53%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (89%) · Kraken at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Hurricanes53¢Kraken47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 89%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$30.39

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 47.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes53%

Kraken48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes1 trader

Total Value$911.51

Total Shares1,823

Combined PnL+$0

Kraken8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,887

Combined PnL+$30.39

Hurricanes — 11%Kraken — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldy	Hurricanesavg 50¢	$911.51	$911.51	+$0	— 4-5 (9)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Krakenavg 50¢	$862	$862	+$0	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
fyrskenCTR	Krakenavg 48¢	$539.04	$561.5	+$22.46	39% 13-20 (33)
38 38791873984189CTR	Krakenavg 48.9¢	$359.64	$367.5	+$7.86	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Krakenavg 50¢	$75	$75	+$0	27% 79-219 (298)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Krakenavg 50¢	$36.74	$36.74	+$0	49% 973-998 (1971)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Krakenavg 48.3¢	$17.86	$18.5	+$0.64	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Krakenavg 50.8¢	$22.08	$17.85	-$0.24	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Krakenavg 49¢	$10.78	$10.45	-$0.33	54% 135-114 (249)

roldy

Hurricanes

Invested

$911.51

Value

$911.51

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-5 (9)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kraken

Invested

$862

Value

$862

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

fyrskenCTR

Kraken

Invested

$539.04

Value

$561.5

PnL

+$22.46

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

38791873984189CTR

Kraken

Invested

$359.64

Value

$367.5

PnL

+$7.86

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$75

Value

$75

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

79-219 (298)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$36.74

Value

$36.74

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$17.86

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$0.64

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$22.08

Value

$17.85

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$0.33

Record

54%

135-114 (249)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.