Spread: Texas A&M Aggies (-7.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma State Cowboys (17%) · Oklahoma State Cowboys at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Oklahoma State Cowboys
6
Oklahoma State Cowboys 17%
$1.9K
$2.49
Research grade
AvoidOklahoma State Cowboys at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma State Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 52¢ | $998.37 | $979.17 | -$19.2 | 1% 5-500 (505) |
 BasquetipsterCTR | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $331.95 | $342.32 | +$10.37 | 9% 8-80 (88) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $230.4 | $235.2 | +$4.8 | 14% 39-249 (288) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $227.71 | $232.46 | +$4.74 | 57% 3356-2538 (5894) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48.2¢ | $47.61 | $48.91 | +$1.29 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $22.74 | $23.21 | +$0.47 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
Invested
$998.37
Value
$979.17
PnL
-$19.2
Record
1%
5-500 (505)
BasquetipsterCTRInvested
$331.95
Value
$342.32
PnL
+$10.37
Record
9%
8-80 (88)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$230.4
Value
$235.2
PnL
+$4.8
Record
14%
39-249 (288)
Invested
$227.71
Value
$232.46
PnL
+$4.74
Record
57%
3356-2538 (5894)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$47.61
Value
$48.91
PnL
+$1.29
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$22.74
Value
$23.21
PnL
+$0.47
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.