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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ndb1omnibus-076daaRN1
Record (consensus markets)57% (4474–3357, n=7831)65% (889–469, n=1358)50% (15092–15111, n=30203)47% (13371–14881, n=28252)
Consensus PnL$8.9M$4.2M$3.0M$14.8M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #344PM monthly #140PM monthly #55PM monthly #29 + pinned
Sides with the consensus71% (10 of 14 open)73% (33 of 45 open)54% (82 of 153 open)60% (103 of 171 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134NFL −9 pts, n=139——
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%92% of 11270 at avg 61¢, ROI +32%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)13% (won 15% of 168)8% (won 60% of 874)10% (won 57% of 2538)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)20% (won 39% of 256)21% (won 87% of 2384)22% (won 94% of 5565)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)24% (won 58% of 314)38% (won 95% of 4296)36% (won 99% of 9017)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)43% (won 93% of 550)33% (won 99% of 3716)33% (won 100% of 8250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

15 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ndb1omnibus-076daaRN1
76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $365—Over $111Under $482
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $14K—Yes $23—
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Gen.G
Gen.G $3.9K—LYON $7.0K—
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-11-04?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $114No $3.5K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $1.6KOver $1.5K
CR Flamengo vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $1.3KUnder $1.1K
M25 Guadalajara: Mauricio Echazu vs Maxwell McKennon
opposite sides · consensus Maxwell McKennon
——Maxwell McKennon $210Mauricio Echazu $1.0K
Cali: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Solana Sierra
opposite sides · consensus Leyre Romero Gormaz
——Leyre Romero Gormaz $740Solana Sierra $476
Will FK Zeleznicar Pancevo win on 2026-11-02?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $68No $677
Costa do Sauipe: Gustavo Heide vs Juan Carlos Prado
opposite sides · consensus Juan Carlos Prado
——Gustavo Heide $10Juan Carlos Prado $141
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $2Under $124
Villa Maria: Lucio Ratti vs Carlos Maria Zarate
opposite sides · consensus Carlos Maria Zarate
——Carlos Maria Zarate $21Lucio Ratti $18
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
same side · consensus Gen.G
Gen.G $260K—Gen.G $5.0K—
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
same side · consensus Gen.G
Gen.G $250K—Gen.G $1.1K—
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $49K—Yes $2.2K—
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac
same side · consensus Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils $2.4K——Arthur Fils $11K
Bratislava 2: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Mika Brunold
same side · consensus Nishesh Basavareddy
——Nishesh Basavareddy $896Nishesh Basavareddy $8.2K
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $6.7K——Raptors $246
Costa do Sauipe: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
same side · consensus Camilo Ugo Carabelli
——Camilo Ugo Carabelli $23Camilo Ugo Carabelli $2.5K
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $249Yes $1.3K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $214—Yes $1.0K—
Pacers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $248——Under $371
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus No
——No $35No $565
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)
same side · consensus Hornets
——Hornets $271Hornets $129
76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $194——Over $81
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5
same side · consensus Over
——Under $27Under $147
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)
same side · consensus Pelicans
——Pelicans $4Pelicans $121