Will FK Zeleznicar Pancevo win on 2026-11-02?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 98¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 2

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$601.05

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 97.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares19,164

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$388.98

Total Shares15,877

Combined PnL-$775.77

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (16 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AH aHjCz	Noavg 94.5¢	$13.4K	$13.8K	+$427.25	40% 5232-7932 (13164)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 90.8¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	+$227.29	61% 902-585 (1487)
RN1	Noavg 42¢	$284.38	$644.17	+$376.39	54% 58646-50907 (109553)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 49.8¢	$89.88	$368.9	+$178.34	51% 22704-21519 (44223)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$617.6	$234.25	-$373.67	54% 21790-18840 (40630)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Noavg 94.9¢	$156.86	$153.02	+$4.16	82% 73-16 (89)
LO lonmi2511	Noavg 44.3¢	$61.61	$132.24	+$73.9	54% 1246-1047 (2293)
tradecraft	Noavg 48.1¢	$99.08	$130.49	+$50.93	51% 6189-5920 (12109)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 51¢	$41.34	$79.9	+$38.55	58% 44185-32138 (76323)
poshposhARB<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$215.88	$79.43	-$129.69	57% 11685-8789 (20474)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$201.91	$49.55	-$146.26
└ No leg	Noavg 44.5¢	$13.97	$29.87	+$16.58
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$210.88	$79.04	-$131.83	50% 20001-20372 (40373)
LR lryyyCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$100.23	$39.79	-$60.43	47% 8915-10013 (18928)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Yesavg 12.3¢	$103.08	$20.96	-$82.12	48% 5112-5613 (10725)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$18.48	$7.84	-$10.32	49% 2609-2667 (5276)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$81.44	$4.74	-$91.26	48% 5768-6225 (11993)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$23.67	$1.14	-$21.28	51% 7016-6771 (13787)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$1.9	$0.99	-$0.91	45% 13246-16111 (29357)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$4.18	$0.22	-$3.96	51% 11494-10874 (22368)

aHjCz

Invested

$13,420.12

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$427.25

Record

40%

5232-7932 (13164)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$3,383.89

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$227.29

Record

61%

902-585 (1487)

RN1

Invested

$284.38

Value

$644.17

PnL

+$376.39

Record

54%

58646-50907 (109553)

Flaznorp

Invested

$89.88

Value

$368.9

PnL

+$178.34

Record

51%

22704-21519 (44223)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$617.6

Value

$234.25

PnL

-$373.67

Record

54%

21790-18840 (40630)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Invested

$156.86

Value

$153.02

PnL

+$4.16

Record

82%

73-16 (89)

lonmi2511

Invested

$61.61

Value

$132.24

PnL

+$73.9

Record

54%

1246-1047 (2293)

tradecraft

Invested

$99.08

Value

$130.49

PnL

+$50.93

Record

51%

6189-5920 (12109)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$41.34

Value

$79.9

PnL

+$38.55

Record

58%

44185-32138 (76323)

poshposhARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$215.88

Value

$79.43

PnL

-$129.69

Record

57%

11685-8789 (20474)

Both legs:

Yes$201.9110¢-$146.26

No$13.9744.5¢+$16.58

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.88

Value

$79.04

PnL

-$131.83

Record

50%

20001-20372 (40373)

lryyyCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.23

Value

$39.79

PnL

-$60.43

Record

47%

8915-10013 (18928)

SlickRick123CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.08

Value

$20.96

PnL

-$82.12

Record

48%

5112-5613 (10725)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.48

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$10.32

Record

49%

2609-2667 (5276)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.44

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$91.26

Record

48%

5768-6225 (11993)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.67

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$21.28

Record

51%

7016-6771 (13787)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.91

Record

45%

13246-16111 (29357)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$3.96

Record

51%

11494-10874 (22368)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (16 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.