Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (80%) · Raptors at 62¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 5

Nuggets38¢Raptors62¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 80%

Total Value

$32.8K

Combined PnL

-$365.52

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 62¢

+27% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets38%

Raptors62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares27,359

Combined PnL+$3.9

Raptors16 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares38,755

Combined PnL-$369.42

Nuggets — 20%Raptors — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNuggets 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrRaptors 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chongchong37CTR	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$15.0K	$7.7K	-$74.99	52% 137-128 (265)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Raptorsavg 49.2¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$172.73	55% 6202-5084 (11286)
nigiri99	Raptorsavg 50.1¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$188.75	46% 8424-9994 (18418)
IA ianf2026CTR	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$76.33	49% 95-99 (194)
HI hi774c	Raptorsavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$0	50% 4971-4900 (9871)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Nuggetsavg 51.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$7.56	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
SU SunlineTicker	Raptorsavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$1.25	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
VeryLucky888	Raptorsavg 48.1¢	$1.1K	$829.93	+$3.04	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Nuggetsavg 50.7¢	$493.11	$503.22	+$10.12	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
HO HomeRunHazard	Raptorsavg 47.1¢	$465.25	$473.72	+$8.47	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
FL Flaznorp	Raptorsavg 48¢	$378.71	$378.71	-$0	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
SE sentrio	Raptorsavg 48¢	$288.48	$288.48	-$0	50% 25577-25281 (50858)
RN1	Raptorsavg 48¢	$275.01	$275.07	+$0.06	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Raptorsavg 51¢	$256.8	$241.92	-$14.88	48% 306-333 (639)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Raptorsavg 48¢	$192	$192	+$0	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
NM NM-P	Raptorsavg 48¢	$175.71	$175.86	+$0.16	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 48¢	$159.78	$159.78	-$0	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Raptorsavg 57¢	$20.22	$17.03	-$3.19	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
DV dv-pm<$100	Raptorsavg 50.2¢	$9.04	$8.64	-$0.4	49% 3309-3463 (6772)
0xheavy888<$100	Raptorsavg 48¢	$4.62	$4.66	+$0.05	56% 7759-6212 (13971)

chongchong37CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$14,999.97

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$74.99

Record

52%

137-128 (265)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Raptors

Invested

$6,816.14

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$172.73

Record

55%

6202-5084 (11286)

nigiri99

Raptors

Invested

$4,458.35

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$188.75

Record

46%

8424-9994 (18418)

ianf2026CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$3,892.98

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$76.33

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

hi774c

Raptors

Invested

$2,874.82

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

4971-4900 (9871)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$1,996.54

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$7.56

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

SunlineTicker

Raptors

Invested

$1,795.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$1.25

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

VeryLucky888

Raptors

Invested

$1,072.22

Value

$829.93

PnL

+$3.04

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

HerdoniaCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$493.11

Value

$503.22

PnL

+$10.12

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

HomeRunHazard

Raptors

Invested

$465.25

Value

$473.72

PnL

+$8.47

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Flaznorp

Raptors

Invested

$378.71

Value

$378.71

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

sentrio

Raptors

Invested

$288.48

Value

$288.48

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$275.01

Value

$275.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

Multicoloured-Serf

Raptors

Invested

$256.8

Value

$241.92

PnL

-$14.88

Record

48%

306-333 (639)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Raptors

Invested

$192

Value

$192

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

NM-P

Raptors

Invested

$175.71

Value

$175.86

PnL

+$0.16

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$159.78

Value

$159.78

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Raptors

Invested

$20.22

Value

$17.03

PnL

-$3.19

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

dv-pm<$100

Raptors

Invested

$9.04

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

3309-3463 (6772)

0xheavy888<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNuggets 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrRaptors 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.