Bratislava 2: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Mika Brunold

22 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Nishesh Basavareddy (73%) · Nishesh Basavareddy at 100¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 11

Nishesh Basavareddy>99¢Mika Brunold<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nishesh Basavareddy

Consensus Traders

Nishesh Basavareddy 73%

Total Value

$41.8K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nishesh Basavareddy

22 of 30 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nishesh Basavareddy100%

Mika Brunold0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nishesh Basavareddy22 traders

Total Value$41.7K

Total Shares42,459

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Mika Brunold8 traders

Total Value$182.42

Total Shares1,445

Combined PnL+$10.83

Nishesh Basavareddy — 73%Mika Brunold — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 98.6¢	$13.3K	$12.2K	$-1.0K	65% 311-165 (476)
RN1	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 73.8¢	$6.4K	$8.2K	+$1.8K	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
FL Flaznorp	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 89.8¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$380.72	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
38 38791873984189	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 90.8¢	$5.7K	$4.4K	+$133.71	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VE Venusian	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 86.9¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$330.29	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
alpheclabs2	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 90¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$252.91	47% 1163-1315 (2478)
DI dips.	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 90.5¢	$967.87	$1.0K	+$70.6	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
LI LightParadox	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 87¢	$1.0K	$983.73	-$26.8	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 93.2¢	$909.21	$896.12	-$13.09	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
LI Limousin	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 88.7¢	$792.26	$858.58	+$66.32	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
PA pauleta23	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 98¢	$648.14	$648.2	+$0.06	66% 23991-12174 (36165)
EU Eulhunter	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 91.4¢	$548.46	$405	-$143.46	54% 6181-5226 (11407)
MA MadridTime	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 86.9¢	$381.88	$357.19	-$24.69	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
poshposh	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 90.4¢	$274.95	$300.04	+$25.09	57% 12279-9333 (21612)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 91.9¢	$252.77	$240.25	-$12.51	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
GA Gaditima	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 81¢	$83	$100	+$17	48% 7105-7804 (14909)
CI cigarettes<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 93.1¢	$94.08	$99.98	+$5.9	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 90.5¢	$72.36	$76.92	+$4.56	49% 2670-2811 (5481)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Mika Brunoldavg 18.8¢	$2.0K	$59.33	-$75.07	52% 738-674 (1412)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 6.6¢	$34.61	$53.42	+$18.8	46% 1395-1652 (3047)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 98.1¢	$50.05	$49.23	-$0.82	58% 6502-4666 (11168)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Mika Brunoldavg 15.9¢	$895.39	$39.44	+$63.06	60% 4352-2914 (7266)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 86.9¢	$49.51	$38.48	-$11.04	57% 19076-14112 (33188)
VeryLucky888<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 66¢	$33.71	$34.47	+$0.77	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 78¢	$13.15	$13.38	+$0.23	65% 5174-2807 (7981)

01258787xy48487484545122

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$13,263.69

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

65%

311-165 (476)

RN1

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$6,355.23

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Flaznorp

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$4,334.05

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$380.72

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

38791873984189

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$5,728.82

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$133.71

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Venusian

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$3,134.86

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$330.29

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

alpheclabs2

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$2,282.93

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$252.91

Record

47%

1163-1315 (2478)

dips.

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$967.87

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$70.6

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

LightParadox

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$1,010.54

Value

$983.73

PnL

-$26.8

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

omnibus-076daa

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$909.21

Value

$896.12

PnL

-$13.09

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

Limousin

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$792.26

Value

$858.58

PnL

+$66.32

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

pauleta23

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$648.14

Value

$648.2

PnL

+$0.06

Record

66%

23991-12174 (36165)

Eulhunter

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$548.46

Value

$405

PnL

-$143.46

Record

54%

6181-5226 (11407)

MadridTime

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$381.88

Value

$357.19

PnL

-$24.69

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

poshposh

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$274.95

Value

$300.04

PnL

+$25.09

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$252.77

Value

$240.25

PnL

-$12.51

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

Gaditima

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$83

Value

$100

PnL

+$17

Record

48%

7105-7804 (14909)

cigarettes<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$94.08

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$5.9

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$72.36

Value

$76.92

PnL

+$4.56

Record

49%

2670-2811 (5481)

1lovejumpCTR

Mika Brunold

Invested

$2,026.16

Value

$59.33

PnL

-$75.07

Record

52%

738-674 (1412)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$34.61

Value

$53.42

PnL

+$18.8

Record

46%

1395-1652 (3047)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$50.05

Value

$49.23

PnL

-$0.82

Record

58%

6502-4666 (11168)

thestingsnakeCTR

Mika Brunold

Invested

$895.39

Value

$39.44

PnL

+$63.06

Record

60%

4352-2914 (7266)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$49.51

Value

$38.48

PnL

-$11.04

Record

57%

19076-14112 (33188)

VeryLucky888<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$33.71

Value

$34.47

PnL

+$0.77

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$13.15

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$0.23

Record

65%

5174-2807 (7981)

Research grade

NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nishesh Basavareddy

22 of 30 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nishesh Basavareddy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.