Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-11-04?

19 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (59%) · Yes at 100¢ · $61K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 99.9¢

+10% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 32 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes19 traders

Total Value$58.0K

Total Shares62,501

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No13 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares49,985

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Yes — 59%No — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
p1252	Yesavg 87.3¢	$26.2K	$25.9K	-$235.81	54% 110-93 (203)
claudionetotrader	Yesavg 98¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$10.1	56% 1360-1090 (2450)
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 98.9¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$59.36	80% 5236-1333 (6569)
RN1	Yesavg 87.1¢	$4.6K	$5.3K	+$646.73	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 90.5¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$417.41	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 98.6¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	$-1.0K	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 91.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$93.37	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 86.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$120.19	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 13¢	$931.21	$1.0K	+$107.45	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$487.4	$491.2	+$3.8	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ No leg	Noavg 13.5¢	$335.08	$336.19	+$1.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 85¢	$152.32	$155.01	+$2.69
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 13.2¢	$2.6K	$456.27	$-2.2K	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 86¢	$448	$450.6	+$2.6	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 92¢	$346.59	$369.71	+$23.12	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 13¢	$283.86	$294.78	+$10.92	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 13.4¢	$261.83	$263.8	+$1.97	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 87.6¢	$251.91	$248.84	-$3.07	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 91.5¢	$228.29	$224.63	-$3.65	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 95¢	$243.76	$221.95	-$21.8	84% 14606-2798 (17404)
alpheclabs2	Yesavg 91¢	$193.94	$210.73	+$16.79	47% 1163-1315 (2478)
RI RichieRicher	Yesavg 98¢	$175.2	$174.75	-$0.45	54% 773-664 (1437)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 13.5¢	$1.0K	$166.02	-$879.88	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 91¢	$106.71	$116.56	+$9.85	48% 7105-7804 (14909)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$80.55	$81.02	+$0.47	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 12.2¢	$527.15	$64.67	-$462.48	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$54.4	$56.49	+$2.09	52% 1149-1045 (2194)

p1252

Yes

Invested

$26,185.81

Value

$25.9K

PnL

-$235.81

Record

54%

110-93 (203)

claudionetotrader

Yes

Invested

$10,004.97

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$10.1

Record

56%

1360-1090 (2450)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$5,923.98

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$59.36

Record

80%

5236-1333 (6569)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$4,614.41

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$646.73

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$4,145.77

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$417.41

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,989.19

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,016.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$93.37

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,169.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$120.19

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$931.21

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$107.45

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$487.4

Value

$491.2

PnL

+$3.8

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

No$335.0813.5¢+$1.11

Yes$152.3285¢+$2.69

LimousinCTR

Invested

$2,626.39

Value

$456.27

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$448

Value

$450.6

PnL

+$2.6

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$346.59

Value

$369.71

PnL

+$23.12

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$283.86

Value

$294.78

PnL

+$10.92

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$261.83

Value

$263.8

PnL

+$1.97

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$251.91

Value

$248.84

PnL

-$3.07

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$228.29

Value

$224.63

PnL

-$3.65

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$243.76

Value

$221.95

PnL

-$21.8

Record

84%

14606-2798 (17404)

alpheclabs2

Yes

Invested

$193.94

Value

$210.73

PnL

+$16.79

Record

47%

1163-1315 (2478)

RichieRicher

Yes

Invested

$175.2

Value

$174.75

PnL

-$0.45

Record

54%

773-664 (1437)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$1,045.9

Value

$166.02

PnL

-$879.88

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$106.71

Value

$116.56

PnL

+$9.85

Record

48%

7105-7804 (14909)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.55

Value

$81.02

PnL

+$0.47

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$527.15

Value

$64.67

PnL

-$462.48

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$54.4

Value

$56.49

PnL

+$2.09

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 32 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.