Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 8 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 47¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 5

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.2K

Combined PnL

-$248.67

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 46.5¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares36,207

Combined PnL+$385.62

Over8 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares53,846

Combined PnL-$634.29

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.3¢	$15.7K	$16.0K	+$303.61	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.5K	-$300	55% 60-49 (109)
AC AckbarCTR	Overavg 48¢	$9.6K	$9.5K	-$100	47% 18-20 (38)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$163.61	51% 1610-1521 (3131)
BA BabooouCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$38	51% 227-218 (445)
nigiri99	Underavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$50.1	46% 8412-9883 (18295)
Stickman22CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$36.34	52% 1695-1572 (3267)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 52.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$5.98	57% 2701-2003 (4704)
SE sentrio	Underavg 50¢	$564.44	$592.26	+$27.82	50% 25501-25206 (50707)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$325	$230.93	+$11.98	48% 59342-63357 (122699)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$140.39	$153.28	+$17.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$82.94	$77.66	-$5.28
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 52¢	$167.12	$168.73	+$1.61	51% 1797-1721 (3518)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$161	$166.25	+$5.25	40% 1349-2039 (3388)
RN1	Underavg 52.9¢	$148.19	$147.09	-$1.1	53% 60086-52456 (112542)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$73.11	$71.7	-$1.41	60% 4423-2917 (7340)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$57.14	$55.64	-$1.5	58% 19476-14320 (33796)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 50¢	$47.51	$46.56	-$0.95	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$27.45	$27.07	-$0.39	50% 20775-21016 (41791)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$12.07	$2.75	+$0.34	58% 45483-32930 (78413)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$15,738.63

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$303.61

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Over

Invested

$9,799.99

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$300

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

AckbarCTR

Over

Invested

$9,599.97

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

47%

18-20 (38)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$3,144.88

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$163.61

Record

51%

1610-1521 (3131)

BabooouCTR

Over

Invested

$1,900

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$38

Record

51%

227-218 (445)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,736.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$50.1

Record

46%

8412-9883 (18295)

Stickman22CTR

Over

Invested

$1,751.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$36.34

Record

52%

1695-1572 (3267)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$1,247.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$5.98

Record

57%

2701-2003 (4704)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$564.44

Value

$592.26

PnL

+$27.82

Record

50%

25501-25206 (50707)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$325

Value

$230.93

PnL

+$11.98

Record

48%

59342-63357 (122699)

Both legs:

Under$140.3949¢+$17.27

Over$82.9449.7¢-$5.28

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$167.12

Value

$168.73

PnL

+$1.61

Record

51%

1797-1721 (3518)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$161

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

40%

1349-2039 (3388)

RN1

Under

Invested

$148.19

Value

$147.09

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

60086-52456 (112542)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$73.11

Value

$71.7

PnL

-$1.41

Record

60%

4423-2917 (7340)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.14

Value

$55.64

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

19476-14320 (33796)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$47.51

Value

$46.56

PnL

-$0.95

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$27.45

Value

$27.07

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

20775-21016 (41791)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$12.07

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

45483-32930 (78413)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.