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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Hornets — but Nets won instead.

Spread: Hornets (-3.5)

Resolved Nets. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Hornets. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

19

Hornets 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hornets0%

Nets100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares14,624

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Hornets13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,640

Combined PnL$-8.8K

Nets — 32%Hornets — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Netsavg 50.9¢	$3.1K	$6.1K	+$3.0K	51% 1611-1521 (3132)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Hornetsavg 52.2¢	$2.7K	—	$-2.7K	53% 642-565 (1207)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hornetsavg 52.2¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Netsavg 50¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	+$1.7K	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
Stickman22	Netsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$3.5K	+$2.0K	52% 1694-1573 (3267)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Hornetsavg 51.3¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Hornetsavg 51¢	$597.95	$562.98	-$34.97	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 51¢	$327.76	—	-$327.76
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 48¢	$270.19	$562.98	+$292.78
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Netsavg 45.7¢	$483.82	$1.1K	+$574.34	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Hornetsavg 51.3¢	$272.28	—	-$272.28	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Hornetsavg 51¢	$203.99	—	-$203.99	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 49.3¢	$186.42	—	-$186.42	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hornetsavg 52.2¢	$186.89	—	-$186.89	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
RN1CTR	Hornetsavg 51¢	$127.5	—	-$127.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 51¢	$64.25	—	-$64.25	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Netsavg 47¢	$47	$100	+$53	48% 306-333 (639)
VeryLucky888	Netsavg 47.6¢	$667.75	$53.16	+$30.2	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 58¢	$45.74	—	-$45.74	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 50¢	$5.5	—	-$5.5	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 52.2¢	—	—	+$0	46% 8424-9994 (18418)

Invested

$3,112.04

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

51%

1611-1521 (3132)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Invested

$2,680.4

Value

—

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$2,469.97

Value

—

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Invested

$4,175.1

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

Invested

$1,470

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

52%

1694-1573 (3267)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Invested

$1,464.3

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Invested

$1,139.7

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

Invested

$597.95

Value

$562.98

PnL

-$34.97

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Hornets$327.7651¢-$327.76

Nets$270.1948¢+$292.78

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$483.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$574.34

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$272.28

Value

—

PnL

-$272.28

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$203.99

Value

—

PnL

-$203.99

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$186.42

Value

—

PnL

-$186.42

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Invested

$186.89

Value

—

PnL

-$186.89

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Invested

$127.5

Value

—

PnL

-$127.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Invested

$64.25

Value

—

PnL

-$64.25

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Multicoloured-Serf

Invested

$47

Value

$100

PnL

+$53

Record

48%

306-333 (639)

Invested

$667.75

Value

$53.16

PnL

+$30.2

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100

Invested

$45.74

Value

—

PnL

-$45.74

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

—

PnL

-$5.5

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8424-9994 (18418)

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb8aab221...6f5331

Slug

nba-cha-bkn-2026-11-04-spread-away-3pt5

Traders in this Market

vibing123

Nets — $6.1K

monkeymashingkeyboard

Hornets — $0

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hornets — $0

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Nets — $3.8K

Stickman22

Nets — $3.5K

HomeRunHazard

Hornets — $0

JAMJAMJAM4

Hornets — $0

NM-P

Arbitrage — excluded

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Nets — $1.1K

omnibus-076daa

Hornets — $0

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