Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fils (71%) · Arthur Fils at 62¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

Arthur Fils62¢Tomas Machac38¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Arthur Fils

Consensus Traders

Arthur Fils 71%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$88.89

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 61.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Research candidateArthur Fils at 62%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Fils62%

Tomas Machac39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Fils5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,657

Combined PnL-$104.46

Tomas Machac2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,432

Combined PnL+$15.56

Arthur Fils — 71%Tomas Machac — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Fils 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrArthur Fils 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedArthur Fils 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arthur Fils 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Arthur Filsavg 63¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$84.9	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Tomas Machacavg 38.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.17	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
VeryLucky888	Arthur Filsavg 62¢	$1.9K	$732.07	-$12	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
38 38791873984189	Arthur Filsavg 62.3¢	$256.01	$330.87	-$2.62	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Arthur Filsavg 62¢	$320.82	$315.65	-$2.59	45% 414-502 (916)
SE sentrioCTR	Tomas Machacavg 38¢	$182.22	$184.61	+$2.4	50% 25470-25164 (50634)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1	Arthur Filsavg 64.2¢	$100.26	$95.31	-$2.34	46% 907-1086 (1993)

Flaznorp

Arthur Fils

Invested

$2,674.39

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$84.9

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,123.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.17

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

VeryLucky888

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,860

Value

$732.07

PnL

-$12

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

38791873984189

Arthur Fils

Invested

$256.01

Value

$330.87

PnL

-$2.62

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Arthur Fils

Invested

$320.82

Value

$315.65

PnL

-$2.59

Record

45%

414-502 (916)

sentrioCTR

Tomas Machac

Invested

$182.22

Value

$184.61

PnL

+$2.4

Record

50%

25470-25164 (50634)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1

Arthur Fils

Invested

$100.26

Value

$95.31

PnL

-$2.34

Record

46%

907-1086 (1993)

Research grade

Research candidateArthur Fils at 62%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Fils 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrArthur Fils 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedArthur Fils 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arthur Fils 67% · 6

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Fils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.