Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (69%) · Gen.G at 55¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 5

Gen.G55¢LYON45¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 69%

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

$68.45

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G55%

LYON46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G9 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares30,164

Combined PnL+$85.36

LYON4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares18,646

Combined PnL-$16.91

Gen.G — 69%LYON — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LYON) and the top 1000 (12 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleLYON 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGen.G 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedLYON 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Gen.Gavg 54¢	$9.9K	$10.0K	+$91.8	50% 1242-1241 (2483)
one8tyfiveCTR	LYONavg 45.8¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$39.68	61% 2127-1370 (3497)
LU lug	Gen.Gavg 55¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$27.27	54% 1894-1584 (3478)
0X 0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728CTR	LYONavg 45¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$22.5	50% 154-155 (309)
DA dancingmonkey1	Gen.Gavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10	53% 1253-1092 (2345)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 55¢	$1.0K	$997.92	-$9.24	57% 1096-822 (1918)
AM am100	Gen.Gavg 54¢	$673.42	$673.42	+$6.24	55% 1166-944 (2110)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Gen.Gavg 51.8¢	$288.07	$300.15	+$14.86	67% 41-20 (61)
VeryLucky888CTR	LYONavg 45.4¢	$275.56	$240.48	+$1.07	58% 43710-31800 (75510)
nigiri99CTR	LYONavg 46¢	$230.92	$211.12	-$0.8	46% 8100-9429 (17529)
SU suntori	Gen.Gavg 56.2¢	$190.46	$181.4	-$9.06	45% 13087-15871 (28958)
GOLDCRYPT12	Gen.Gavg 51¢	$131.61	$140.64	+$9.03	51% 979-928 (1907)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Gen.Gavg 55¢	$55.33	$54.32	-$1.01	51% 11461-10834 (22295)

Gooooooollllllllll

Gen.G

Invested

$9,914.47

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$91.8

Record

50%

1242-1241 (2483)

one8tyfiveCTR

LYON

Invested

$6,024.62

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$39.68

Record

61%

2127-1370 (3497)

lug

Gen.G

Invested

$3,000.25

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$27.27

Record

54%

1894-1584 (3478)

0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728CTR

LYON

Invested

$2,024.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$22.5

Record

50%

154-155 (309)

dancingmonkey1

Gen.G

Invested

$1,079.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

1253-1092 (2345)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$1,016.4

Value

$997.92

PnL

-$9.24

Record

57%

1096-822 (1918)

am100

Gen.G

Invested

$673.42

Value

$673.42

PnL

+$6.24

Record

55%

1166-944 (2110)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Gen.G

Invested

$288.07

Value

$300.15

PnL

+$14.86

Record

67%

41-20 (61)

VeryLucky888CTR

LYON

Invested

$275.56

Value

$240.48

PnL

+$1.07

Record

58%

43710-31800 (75510)

nigiri99CTR

LYON

Invested

$230.92

Value

$211.12

PnL

-$0.8

Record

46%

8100-9429 (17529)

suntori

Gen.G

Invested

$190.46

Value

$181.4

PnL

-$9.06

Record

45%

13087-15871 (28958)

GOLDCRYPT12

Gen.G

Invested

$131.61

Value

$140.64

PnL

+$9.03

Record

51%

979-928 (1907)

iWasEnough<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$55.33

Value

$54.32

PnL

-$1.01

Record

51%

11461-10834 (22295)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LYON) and the top 1000 (12 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleLYON 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGen.G 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedLYON 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.