Costa do Sauipe: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Camilo Ugo Carabelli (67%) · Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 11

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes<1¢Camilo Ugo Carabelli>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Consensus Traders

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$478.16

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralCamilo Ugo Carabelli at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes0%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Camilo Ugo Carabelli12 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares13,681

Combined PnL-$469.72

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes6 traders

Total Value$24.52

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$8.44

Camilo Ugo Carabelli — 67%Igor Ribeiro Marcondes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 96.7¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$45.86	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
MA MadridTime	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 95.4¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$42.87	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
RN1	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 88.8¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$89.3	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
VE Venusian	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 93.5¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$898.63	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
38 38791873984189	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 81.7¢	$981.77	$1.2K	+$204.54	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
1L 1lovejump	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 91.2¢	$1.4K	$620.07	+$81.53	52% 738-674 (1412)
FL Flaznorp	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 97.1¢	$553.93	$588.64	+$34.71	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
EU Eulhunter	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 79.7¢	$92.68	$106.72	+$14.04	54% 6181-5226 (11407)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 20.6¢	$184.32	$105.81	-$78.51	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
└ Camilo Ugo Carabelli leg	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 97¢	$60.6	$57.47	-$3.13
└ Igor Ribeiro Marcondes leg	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 20.6¢	$123.72	$48.34	-$75.38
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 91.2¢	$37.57	$38.7	+$1.13	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 73¢	$21.9	$22.95	+$1.05	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
tradecraft<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 80.8¢	$16.16	$15.6	-$0.56	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 7.3¢	$21.95	$14.52	-$6.38	60% 4352-2914 (7266)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 87.9¢	$13.18	$13.35	+$0.17	57% 19076-14112 (33188)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 28¢	$7.65	$6.42	-$1.23	61% 14037-9041 (23078)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 29¢	$4.04	$3.27	-$0.77	74% 2423-864 (3287)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.28	+$0.03	65% 5174-2807 (7981)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 0.5¢	$0.09	$0.03	-$0.07	59% 31875-22502 (54377)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Igor Ribeiro Marcondesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.02	53% 22636-19888 (42524)

Limousin

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$3,496.04

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$45.86

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

MadridTime

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$3,091.06

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$42.87

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

RN1

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$2,483.41

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$89.3

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Venusian

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$2,587.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$898.63

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

38791873984189

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$981.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$204.54

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

1lovejump

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$1,409.29

Value

$620.07

PnL

+$81.53

Record

52%

738-674 (1412)

Flaznorp

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$553.93

Value

$588.64

PnL

+$34.71

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Eulhunter

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$92.68

Value

$106.72

PnL

+$14.04

Record

54%

6181-5226 (11407)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$184.32

Value

$105.81

PnL

-$78.51

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

Both legs:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli$60.697¢-$3.13

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes$123.7220.6¢-$75.38

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$37.57

Value

$38.7

PnL

+$1.13

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$21.9

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

tradecraft<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$16.16

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$0.56

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$21.95

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$6.38

Record

60%

4352-2914 (7266)

BillBenter2026<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$13.18

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

19076-14112 (33188)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$1.23

Record

61%

14037-9041 (23078)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$4.04

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$0.77

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

5174-2807 (7981)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

31875-22502 (54377)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

Research grade

NeutralCamilo Ugo Carabelli at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.